Add to download list + Remove from download list -
Print page
Article content

Forecast tables for 2024–2027 (December 2024)

Finland is moving on from the recession in its economy. Growth will be slow initially but will gradually pick up. Inflation will no longer be erod-ing the increase in earnings, and the reduction in interest rates will fuel investment and consumption.

1. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND AT REFERENCE YEAR 2015 PRICES
% change on previous year 2023 2024f 2025f 2026f 2027f
GDP at market prices -1.2 -0.5 0.8 1.8 1.3
Imports of goods and services -6.6 -1.1 2.2 3.5 3.0
Exports of goods and services 0.2 -0.3 2.7 2.7 2.9
Private consumption 0.3 -0.3 0.5 1.5 1.2
Public consumption 3.4 0.2 -0.4 0.3 -0.0
Private fixed investment -10.1 -10.6 0.9 6.7 4.6
Public fixed investment -3.6 7.1 13.3 4.2 -1.3
f=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
2. CONTRIBUTIONS TO GROWTH1
2023 2024f 2025f 2026f 2027f
GDP, % change -1.2 -0.5 0.8 1.8 1.3
Net exports 3.2 0.3 0.2 -0.3 -0.1
Domestic demand excl. inventory change -1.3 -1.8 0.9 2.2 1.4
of which Consumption 1.0 -0.1 0.1 0.8 0.6
Investment -2.2 -1.7 0.7 1.3 0.8
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy -3.1 1.0 -0.3 0.0 -0.0
1 Bank of Finland calculations. Annual growth rates using the previous year's GDP shares at current prices as weights.
f=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
3. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, PRICE DEFLATORS
Index 2015 = 100, and % change on previous year 2023 2024f 2025f 2026f 2027f
GDP at market prices 119.1 120.4 122.2 124.4 126.9
3.9 1.1 1.5 1.7 2.0
Imports of goods and services 126.5 125.4 125.6 126.9 128.3
-2.7 -0.8 0.1 1.1 1.1
Exports of goods and services 124.4 121.5 121.9 123.2 124.5
-4.7 -2.3 0.3 1.1 1.1
Private consumption 118.0 119.2 121.4 123.3 125.5
4.6 1.0 1.9 1.6 1.8
Public consumption 120.9 123.6 127.4 130.1 133.2
6.0 2.2 3.1 2.1 2.4
Private fixed investment 127.3 127.2 127.9 130.0 132.6
4.9 -0.1 0.5 1.7 2.0
Public fixed investment 122.6 123.0 124.0 126.3 129.1
4.0 0.3 0.8 1.9 2.2
Terms of trade (goods and services) 98.4 96.9 97.1 97.1 97.1
-2.1 -1.5 0.2 -0.0 0.0
f=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
4. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, AT CURRENT PRICES
EUR million and % change on previous year 2023 2024f 2025f 2026f 2027f
GDP at market prices 273,320 274,927 281,223 291,372 301,170
2.7 0.6 2.3 3.6 3.4
Imports of goods and services 116,211 113,949 116,650 122,043 127,092
-9.1 -1.9 2.4 4.6 4.1
Total supply 389,531 388,875 397,873 413,416 428,262
-1.1 -0.2 2.3 3.9 3.6
Exports of goods and services 117,023 113,944 117,350 121,818 126,703
-4.6 -2.6 3.0 3.8 4.0
Consumption 211,757 214,587 219,845 226,064 232,434
6.4 1.3 2.5 2.8 2.8
Private 141,309 142,403 145,707 150,180 154,753
4.9 0.8 2.3 3.1 3.0
Public 70,448 72,184 74,138 75,885 77,681
9.6 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.4
Fixed investment 63,293 58,533 60,912 65,741 69,334
-4.6 -7.5 4.1 7.9 5.5
Private 52,224 46,647 47,326 51,329 54,789
-5.6 -10.7 1.5 8.5 6.7
Public 11,069 11,886 13,586 14,413 14,545
0.5 7.4 14.3 6.1 0.9
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy -2,542 1,811 -235 -208 -208
% of previous year's total demand -2.2 1.1 -0.5 0.0 0.0
Total demand 389,531 388,875 397,873 413,416 428,262
-1.1 -0.2 2.3 3.9 3.6
Total domestic demand 272,508 274,932 280,523 291,597 301,560
0.4 0.9 2.0 3.9 3.4
f=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
5. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND
% in proportion to GDP at current prices 2023 2024f 2025f 2026f 2027f
GDP at market prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Imports of goods and services 42.5 41.4 41.5 41.9 42.2
Exports of goods and services 42.8 41.4 41.7 41.8 42.1
Consumption 77.5 78.1 78.2 77.6 77.2
Private 51.7 51.8 51.8 51.5 51.4
Public 25.8 26.3 26.4 26.0 25.8
Fixed investment 23.2 21.3 21.7 22.6 23.0
Private 19.1 17.0 16.8 17.6 18.2
Public 4.0 4.3 4.8 4.9 4.8
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy, -0.9 0.7 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
Total demand 142.5 141.4 141.5 141.9 142.2
Total domestic demand 99.7 100.0 99.8 100.1 100.1
f=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
6. PRICES
Index 2015 = 100, and % change on previous year 2023 2024f 2025f 2026f 2027f
Harmonised index of consumer prices, 2015=100 118.7 119.9 122.2 123.9 126.0
4.3 1.0 1.9 1.5 1.7
Harmonised index of consumer prices, 2015=100 112.5 115.0 117.8 119.6 121.5
4.1 2.2 2.5 1.5 1.6
Consumer price index, 2005=100 120.5 122.4 123.4 124.6 126.8
6.3 1.6 0.8 1.0 1.7
Private consumption deflator 118.0 119.2 121.4 123.3 125.5
4.6 1.0 1.9 1.6 1.8
Private investment deflator 127.3 127.2 127.9 130.0 132.6
4.9 -0.1 0.5 1.7 2.0
Exports of goods and services deflator 124.4 121.5 121.9 123.2 124.5
-4.7 -2.3 0.3 1.1 1.1
Imports of goods and services deflator 126.5 125.4 125.6 126.9 128.3
-2.7 -0.8 0.1 1.1 1.1
Value-added deflators
Value-added, gross at basic prices 119.1 121.2 123.0 125.1 127.6
4.1 1.7 1.5 1.7 2.0
f=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
7. WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
% change on previous year 2023 2024f 2025f 2026f 2027f
Whole economy
Index of wage and salary earnings 4.2 3.1 3.0 2.6 2.6
Compensation per employee 3.5 -0.1 3.5 2.7 2.5
Unit labour costs 5.3 -0.6 2.5 1.7 1.8
Labour productivity per employed person -1.7 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.7
f=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
8. LABOUR MARKET
1,000 persons and % change on previous year 2023 2024f 2025f 2026f 2027f
Labour force survey (15–74-year-olds)
Employed persons 2,632 2,605 2,600 2,621 2,639
0.5 -1.0 -0.2 0.8 0.7
Unemployed persons 206 237 246 234 221
7.7 15.1 4.1 -5.0 -5.5
Labour force 2,838 2,842 2,847 2,855 2,860
1.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2
Working-age population (15–64-year-olds) 3,442 3,473 3,491 3,510 3,529
0.6 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.5
Labour force participation rate, % 68.7 68.4 68.3 68.2 68.1
Unemployment rate, % 7.2 8.3 8.7 8.2 7.7
Employment rate (20–64-year-olds), % 77.9 76.7 76.3 76.5 76.6
f=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
9. GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE, EXPENDITURE, BALANCE AND DEBT
2023 2024f 2025f 2026f 2027f
% relative to GDP
General government revenue 52.7 53.3 53.9 53.5 53.3
General government expenditure 55.7 57.3 57.7 56.8 56.2
General government primary expenditure 54.6 55.9 56.1 55.1 54.3
General government interest expenditure 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9
General government net lending -3.0 -4.0 -3.7 -3.3 -2.9
Central government -3.3 -3.2 -3.6 -3.3 -3.2
Local government -1.1 -1.1 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0
Social security funds 1.4 0.2 0.7 1.0 1.2
General government primary balance -1.8 -2.7 -2.2 -1.6 -1.1
General government structural balance¹ -2.5 -2.7 -2.3 -2.4 -2.4
General government debt (EDP) 77.1 81.7 84.6 85.9 87.3
Central government debt 57.1 61.4 64.2 65.4 66.5
Tax ratio 42.5 42.5 42.9 42.6 42.3
Current prices, EUR billion
General government net lending -8.2 -11.1 -10.5 -9.7 -8.9
Central government -8.9 -8.8 -10.2 -9.7 -9.6
Local government -3.0 -2.9 -2.1 -2.8 -2.9
Social security funds 3.7 0.6 1.8 2.9 3.7
General government debt (EDP) 210.9 224.7 237.9 250.4 262.8
1Based on the cyclical adjustment method used by the European System of Central Banks.
f=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
10. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
EUR billion 2023 2024f 2025f 2026f 2027f
Exports of goods and services (SNA) 117.0 113.9 117.4 121.8 126.7
Imports of goods and services (SNA) 116.2 113.9 116.6 122.0 127.1
Goods and services account (SNA) 0.8 -0.0 0.7 -0.2 -0.4
% to GDP 0.3 -0.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.1
Investment income and other items, net (+ statistical discrepancy) 0.7 2.1 1.0 1.0 1.0
Current transfers, net -2.1 -1.7 -1.5 -2.0 -2.2
Current account, net -1.1 1.2 0.2 -1.2 -1.6
Net lending, % to GDP
Private sector 2.6 4.5 3.8 2.9 2.4
Public sector -3.0 -4.0 -3.7 -3.3 -2.9
Current account, % to GDP -0.4 0.5 0.1 -0.4 -0.5
f=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
11. INTEREST RATES
% 2023 2024f 2025f 2026f 2027f
3-month Euribor1 3.4 3.6 2.1 2.0 2.2
Yield on Finnish 10-year government bonds1 3.0 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1
1Technical assumption derived from market expectations.
f=forecast.
Sources: ECB and Bank of Finland.
12. INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
The Eurosystem staff projections 2023 2024f 2025f 2026f 2027f
GDP, % change on previous year
World (excl. euro area) 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.0
USA 2.9 2.8 2.2 1.8 1.8
Euro area 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.3
Japan 1.7 -0.1 1.5 0.8 0.8
Imports, % change on previous year
World (excl. euro area) 0.5 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.2
USA -1.2 5.6 4.0 2.6 2.9
Euro area -0.7 0.1 2.3 3.1 2.9
Japan -1.5 2.0 3.1 2.5 2.5
Index, 2015 = 100, and % change on previous year
Import volume in Finnish export markets 118.6 120.5 124.0 127.8 131.5
-0.2 1.7 2.9 3.0 2.9
Export prices of Finland's trading partners, national currencies 126.7 128.6 130.9 133.7 136.5
-1.3 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.0
Export prices of Finland's trading partners, in euro 124.8 125.1 127.6 130.4 133.1
-4.6 0.2 2.0 2.2 2.0
Industrial raw materials (excl. energy), HWWA index, in US dollars 139.3 151.7 160.5 159.8 157.2
-12.5 8.9 5.8 -0.4 -1.7
Oil price, USD per barrel1 83.7 81.8 71.8 70.1 69.2
-19.2 -2.3 -12.3 -2.3 -1.3
Finland's nominal effective exchange rate 2 101.5 102.8 102.5 102.5 102.5
-3.4 -1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
US dollar value of one euro3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
2.6 0.2 -1.9 0.0 0.0
1Technical assumption derived from market expectations.
2 Broad nominal effective exchange rate, January – March 2015 = 100. The index rises as the currency depreciates. Assuming no changes in the exchange rate.
3 Assuming no changes in the exchange rate.
f=forecast.
Sources: ECB and Bank of Finland.
13. Current and June 2024 forecast
2023 2024f 2025f 2026f 2027f
GDP, % change -1.2 -0.5 0.8 1.8 1.3
June 2024 -1.0 -0.5 1.2 1.7
Inflation (HICP), % 4.3 1.0 1.9 1.5 1.7
June 2024 4.3 1.2 2.0 1.6
Employment rate (20–64-year-olds), % 77.9 76.7 76.3 76.5 76.6
June 2024 78.0 77.0 77.2 77.7
Unemployment rate, % 7.2 8.3 8.7 8.2 7.7
June 2024 7.2 8.1 7.8 7.6
Current account, % to GDP -0.4 0.5 0.1 -0.4 -0.5
June 2024 -1.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5
General government net lending, % to GDP -3.0 -4.0 -3.7 -3.3 -2.9
June 2024 -2.7 -3.8 -3.3 -2.9
General government debt (EDP), % to GDP 77.1 81.7 84.6 85.9 87.3
June 2024 75.8 80.5 82.6 83.5
f=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
Linkedin
Back to top