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Forecast tables for 2024–2026 (June 2024)

The Finnish economy is recovering from the recession. The move out of recession will be slow, and the output of the Finnish economy in 2024 will in fact be below the level of the previous year.

1.BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND AT REFERENCE YEAR 2015 PRICES
% change on previous year 2022 2023 2024f 2025f 2026f
GDP at market prices 1.3 -1.0 -0.5 1.2 1.7
Imports of goods and services 8.4 -7.1 -2.0 2.8 2.7
Exports of goods and services 3.6 -1.7 -1.7 2.8 3.0
Private consumption 1.8 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.3
Public consumption -1.0 4.5 -0.0 -0.5 0.6
Private fixed investment 2.7 -4.1 -5.0 2.3 4.2
Public fixed investment 1.3 -4.3 9.2 11.8 -1.6
f=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
2. CONTRIBUTIONS TO GROWTH1
2022 2023 2024f 2025f 2026f
GDP, % change 1.3 -1.0 -0.5 1.2 1.7
Net exports -1.9 2.6 0.2 -0.0 0.1
Domestic demand excl. inventory change 1.3 0.3 -0.3 1.2 1.5
of which Consumption 0.7 1.3 0.3 0.2 0.9
Investment 0.6 -1.0 -0.6 0.9 0.7
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy 1.9 -3.9 -0.3 0.0 0.0
1 Bank of Finland calculations. Annual growth rates using the previous year's GDP shares at current prices as weights.
f=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
3. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, PRICE DEFLATORS
Index 2015 = 100, and % change on previous year 2022 2023 2024f 2025f 2026f
GDP at market prices 114.6 120.1 121.1 123.2 125.4
5.4 4.8 0.9 1.7 1.8
Imports of goods and services 130.6 126.2 127.4 130.2 132.7
19.6 -3.3 0.9 2.2 1.9
Exports of goods and services 130.7 124.5 125.6 128.4 131.1
18.7 -4.8 0.9 2.2 2.1
Private consumption 112.8 117.7 119.3 121.4 123.2
6.2 4.4 1.3 1.8 1.5
Public consumption 114.1 118.8 121.9 125.5 128.2
5.3 4.2 2.6 3.0 2.2
Private fixed investment 121.3 127.1 127.6 129.0 131.0
6.7 4.8 0.4 1.0 1.6
Public fixed investment 117.7 122.2 122.9 124.1 126.0
6.1 3.9 0.5 1.0 1.5
Terms of trade (goods and services) 100.1 98.6 98.6 98.6 98.8
-0.8 -1.5 0.0 -0.0 0.2
f=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
4. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, AT CURRENT PRICES
EUR million and % change on previous year 2022 2023 2024f 2025f 2026f
GDP at market prices 267,683 277,625 278,807 287,023 297,005
6.8 3.7 0.4 2.9 3.5
Imports of goods and services 127,979 114,890 113,585 119,348 124,950
29.4 -10.2 -1.1 5.1 4.7
Total supply 395,662 392,515 392,392 406,370 421,955
13.2 -0.8 -0.0 3.6 3.8
Exports of goods and services 121,574 113,728 112,846 118,517 124,627
22.9 -6.5 -0.8 5.0 5.2
Consumption 203,230 215,563 220,193 225,591 231,967
6.9 6.1 2.1 2.5 2.8
Private 138,961 145,660 148,464 152,100 156,399
8.1 4.8 1.9 2.4 2.8
Public 64,269 69,903 71,728 73,492 75,568
4.2 8.8 2.6 2.5 2.8
Fixed investment 64,639 64,836 63,454 66,772 69,841
9.2 0.3 -2.1 5.2 4.6
Private 53,382 53,628 51,160 52,888 55,972
9.6 0.5 -4.6 3.4 5.8
Public 11,257 11,208 12,294 13,884 13,869
7.4 -0.4 9.7 12.9 -0.1
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy 6,219 -1,612 -4,100 -4,510 -4,480
% of previous year's total demand 1.4 -2.0 -0.6 -0.1 0.0
Total demand 395,662 392,515 392,392 406,370 421,955
13.2 -0.8 -0.0 3.6 3.8
Total domestic demand 274,088 278,787 279,546 287,853 297,328
9.4 1.7 0.3 3.0 3.3
f=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
5. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND
% in proportion to GDP at current prices 2022 2023 2024f 2025f 2026f
GDP at market prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Imports of goods and services 47.8 41.4 40.7 41.6 42.1
Exports of goods and services 45.4 41.0 40.5 41.3 42.0
Consumption 75.9 77.6 79.0 78.6 78.1
Private 51.9 52.5 53.2 53.0 52.7
Public 24.0 25.2 25.7 25.6 25.4
Fixed investment 24.1 23.4 22.8 23.3 23.5
Private 19.9 19.3 18.3 18.4 18.8
Public 4.2 4.0 4.4 4.8 4.7
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy, 2.3 -0.6 -1.5 -1.6 -1.5
Total demand 147.8 141.4 140.7 141.6 142.1
Total domestic demand 102.4 100.4 100.3 100.3 100.1
f=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
6. PRICES
Index 2015 = 100, and % change on previous year 2022 2023 2024f 2025f 2026f
Harmonised index of consumer prices, 2005=100 113.7 118.7 120.1 122.4 124.3
7.2 4.3 1.2 2.0 1.6
Consumer price index, 2005=100 113.4 120.5 122.6 124.3 125.8
7.1 6.3 1.8 1.4 1.3
Private consumption deflator 112.8 117.7 119.3 121.4 123.2
6.2 4.4 1.3 1.8 1.5
Private investment deflator 121.3 127.1 127.6 129.0 131.0
6.7 4.8 0.4 1.0 1.6
Exports of goods and services deflator 130.7 124.5 125.6 128.4 131.1
18.7 -4.8 0.9 2.2 2.1
Imports of goods and services deflator 130.6 126.2 127.4 130.2 132.7
19.6 -3.3 0.9 2.2 1.9
Value-added deflators
Value-added, gross at basic prices 114.3 120.1 121.1 123.2 125.4
5.1 5.0 0.9 1.7 1.8
f=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
7. WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
% change on previous year 2022 2023 2024f 2025f 2026f
Whole economy
Index of wage and salary earnings 2.4 4.2 3.4 2.9 2.6
Compensation per employee 2.4 3.5 1.4 2.8 2.9
Unit labour costs 3.9 5.1 1.2 1.9 1.7
Labour productivity per employed person -1.4 -1.6 0.2 0.9 1.1
f=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
8. LABOUR MARKET
1,000 persons and % change on previous year 2022 2023 2024f 2025f 2026f
Labour force survey (15–74-year-olds)
Employed persons 2,618 2,632 2,616 2,624 2,638
2.8 0.5 -0.6 0.3 0.5
Unemployed persons 191 206 232 223 217
-9.3 7.7 12.6 -3.6 -2.7
Labour force 2,809 2,838 2,848 2,848 2,856
1.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.3
Working-age population (15–64-year-olds) 3,421 3,442 3,468 3,469 3,467
0.1 0.6 0.7 0.0 -0.1
Labour force participation rate, % 68 69 69 69 69
Unemployment rate, % 6.8 7.2 8.1 7.8 7.6
Employment rate (20–64-year-olds), % 78 78 77 77 78
f=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
9. GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE, EXPENDITURE, BALANCE AND DEBT
2022 2023 2024f 2025f 2026f
% relative to GDP
General government revenue 53.0 53.0 53.6 53.9 53.5
General government expenditure 53.4 55.6 57.3 57.2 56.4
General government primary expenditure 52.8 54.5 56.0 55.6 54.7
General government interest expenditure 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.7
General government net lending -0.4 -2.7 -3.8 -3.3 -2.9
Central government -1.6 -3.0 -3.3 -3.3 -3.0
Local government -0.2 -1.1 -1.1 -0.7 -0.8
Social security funds 1.2 1.5 0.6 0.8 0.9
General government primary balance 0.2 -1.6 -2.4 -1.7 -1.2
General government structural balance¹ -2.0 -0.8 -1.6 -2.2 -3.2
General government debt (EDP) 73.5 75.8 80.5 82.6 83.5
Central government debt 52.9 56.3 60.1 62.2 63.1
Tax ratio 43.0 41.9 42.0 42.2 41.9
Current prices, EUR billion
General government net lending -1.0 -7.4 -10.5 -9.4 -8.6
Central government -4.2 -8.2 -9.1 -9.6 -9.0
Local government -0.4 -3.0 -3.2 -2.1 -2.2
Social security funds 3.2 4.2 1.8 2.2 2.6
General government debt (EDP) 196.8 210.5 224.6 237.1 248.1
1Based on the cyclical adjustment method used by the European System of Central Banks.
f=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
10. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
EUR billion 2022 2023 2024f 2025f 2026f
Exports of goods and services (SNA) 121.6 113.7 112.8 118.5 124.6
Imports of goods and services (SNA) 128.0 114.9 113.6 119.3 124.9
Goods and services account (SNA) -6.4 -1.2 -0.7 -0.8 -0.3
% to GDP -2.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1
Investment income and other items, net (+ statistical discrepancy) 2.4 -0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0
Current transfers, net -2.6 -2.3 -1.8 -1.7 -2.1
Current account, net -6.5 -4.0 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5
Net lending, % to GDP
Private sector -1.9 1.1 3.2 2.8 2.4
Public sector -0.5 -2.5 -3.8 -3.3 -2.9
Current account, % to GDP -2.4 -1.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5
f=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
11. INTEREST RATES
% 2022 2023 2024f 2025f 2026f
3-month Euribor1 0.3 3.4 3.6 2.8 2.5
Yield on Finnish 10-year government bonds1 1.7 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.0
1Technical assumption derived from market expectations.
f=forecast.
Sources: ECB and Bank of Finland.
12. INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
The Eurosystem staff projections 2022 2023 2024f 2025f 2026f
GDP, % change on previous year
World (excl. euro area) 6.4 3.3 2.6 3.1 3.3
USA 5.9 1.9 0.6 0.9 1.8
Euro area 5.2 3.4 0.5 1.9 1.8
Japan 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3
Imports, % change on previous year
World (excl. euro area) 12.6 5.6 1.9 3.3 3.3
USA 14.1 8.2 -1.1 2.4 2.9
Euro area 8.2 7.9 3.1 3.3 3.4
Japan 5.1 7.6 3.3 2.4 2.4
Index, 2015 = 100, and % change on previous year
Import volume in Finnish export markets 117.8 124.8 126.1 130.0 134.0
10.9 6.0 1.0 3.1 3.1
Export prices of Finland's trading partners, national currencies 116.6 135.3 136.5 140.0 143.3
10.6 16.0 0.9 2.6 2.3
Export prices of Finland's trading partners, in euro 106.6 126.9 124.5 127.5 130.5
9.9 19.0 -1.9 2.4 2.3
Industrial raw materials (excl. energy), HWWA index, in US dollars 152.9 162.9 144.1 141.3 143.1
42.1 6.6 -11.5 -2.0 1.3
Oil price, USD per barrel1 71.1 103.7 78.0 72.6 70.4
71.3 45.8 -24.7 -7.0 -3.1
Finland's nominal effective exchange rate 2 109.4 106.6 109.6 109.8 109.8
-0.7 2.6 -2.7 -0.2 0.0
US dollar value of one euro3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
3.7 -11.0 2.9 0.2 0.0
1Technical assumption derived from market expectations.
2 Broad nominal effective exchange rate, January – March 2015 = 100. The index rises as the currency depreciates. Assuming no changes in the exchange rate.
3 Assuming no changes in the exchange rate.
f=forecast.
Sources: ECB and Bank of Finland.
13. Current and December 2023 forecast
GDP, % change 2022 2023f 2024f 2025f 2026f
December 2023 2.1 -0.4 0.9 1.5 #N/A
Inflation (HICP), % 7.2 4.3 1.2 2.0 1.6
December 2023 7.2 4.5 1.3 1.6 #N/A
Employment rate (20–64-year-olds), % 78.1 78.0 77.0 77.2 77.7
December 2023 78.1 78.0 78.2 78.5 #N/A
Unemployment rate, % 6.8 7.2 8.1 7.8 7.6
December 2023 6.8 7.2 7.1 7.0 #N/A
Current account, % to GDP -2.4 -1.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5
December 2023 -3.9 -1.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5
General government net lending, % to GDP -0.4 -2.7 -3.8 -3.3 -2.9
December 2023 -0.8 -2.2 -2.9 -3.6 #N/A
General government debt (EDP), % to GDP 73.5 75.8 80.5 82.6 83.5
December 2023 72.8 73.9 78.5 81.3 84.0
f=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
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