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Forecast tables for 2023–2026 (December 2023)
Finland’s economy is in recession and will not start to pick up until the end of 2024. The prices of goods and services have remained high since the earlier peak in inflation, and elevated interest rates on loans are further weakening the purchasing power of households.
| % change on previous year | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2023f | 2024f | 2025f | 2026f | |
| GDP at market prices | 1.6 | -0.5 | -0.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Imports of goods and services | 8.5 | -7.2 | -1.3 | 3.0 | 3.1 |
| Exports of goods and services | 3.7 | -1.2 | -1.4 | 2.5 | 3.0 |
| Private consumption | 1.7 | -0.8 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Public consumption | 0.8 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.9 |
| Private fixed investment | 4.0 | -3.8 | -4.3 | 2.5 | 3.5 |
| Public fixed investment | -0.2 | -13.6 | 18.2 | 12.9 | -1.8 |
| F=forecast. | |||||
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. | |||||
| 2022 | 2023f | 2024f | 2025f | 2026f | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP, % change | 1.6 | -0.5 | -0.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Net exports | -1.9 | 2.9 | -0.0 | -0.2 | -0.0 |
| Domestic demand excl. inventory change | 1.8 | -0.8 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| of which Consumption | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Investment | 0.8 | -1.3 | -0.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Inventory change + statistical discrepancy | 1.7 | -2.6 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 Bank of Finland calculations. Annual growth rates using the previous year's GDP shares at current prices as weights. | |||||
| F=forecast. | |||||
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. | |||||
| Index 2015 = 100, and % change on previous year | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2023f | 2024f | 2025f | 2026f | |
| GDP at market prices | 114.3 | 120.4 | 122.6 | 124.9 | 127.5 |
| 5.4 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 | |
| Imports of goods and services | 130.7 | 126.1 | 124.4 | 126.0 | 128.0 |
| 19.7 | -3.6 | -1.3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | |
| Exports of goods and services | 131.2 | 124.7 | 123.0 | 124.6 | 126.7 |
| 18.8 | -4.9 | -1.4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | |
| Private consumption | 112.2 | 117.6 | 119.3 | 121.2 | 123.5 |
| 6.1 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | |
| Public consumption | 112.6 | 117.2 | 120.5 | 123.5 | 126.6 |
| 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.5 | |
| Private fixed investment | 121.1 | 126.9 | 125.6 | 127.5 | 129.8 |
| 6.6 | 4.8 | -1.0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | |
| Public fixed investment | 117.9 | 123.3 | 123.4 | 125.1 | 127.4 |
| 6.3 | 4.6 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 1.8 | |
| Terms of trade (goods and services) | 100.3 | 98.9 | 98.8 | 98.9 | 99.0 |
| -0.8 | -1.4 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | |
| F=forecast. | |||||
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. | |||||
| EUR million and % change on previous year | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2023f | 2024f | 2025f | 2026f | |
| GDP at market prices | 268,641 | 281,407 | 285,937 | 295,561 | 305,731 |
| 7.1 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 3.4 | 3.4 | |
| Imports of goods and services | 128,118 | 114,668 | 111,717 | 116,538 | 122,042 |
| 29.6 | -10.5 | -2.6 | 4.3 | 4.7 | |
| Total supply | 396,759 | 396,075 | 397,654 | 412,099 | 427,773 |
| 13.4 | -0.2 | 0.4 | 3.6 | 3.8 | |
| Exports of goods and services | 121,694 | 114,245 | 111,097 | 115,411 | 120,851 |
| 23.0 | -6.1 | -2.8 | 3.9 | 4.7 | |
| Consumption | 202,917 | 213,522 | 218,521 | 224,713 | 231,932 |
| 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | |
| Private | 138,279 | 143,764 | 146,619 | 150,948 | 155,669 |
| 7.9 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.1 | |
| Public | 64,638 | 69,758 | 71,903 | 73,765 | 76,263 |
| 4.8 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 3.4 | |
| Fixed investment | 65,083 | 64,438 | 63,410 | 67,208 | 70,078 |
| 10.0 | -1.0 | -1.6 | 6.0 | 4.3 | |
| Private | 53,993 | 54,395 | 51,538 | 53,624 | 56,498 |
| 10.8 | 0.7 | -5.3 | 4.0 | 5.4 | |
| Public | 11,090 | 10,043 | 11,872 | 13,584 | 13,580 |
| 5.9 | -9.4 | 18.2 | 14.4 | -0.0 | |
| Inventory change + statistical discrepancy | 7,065 | 3,869 | 4,626 | 4,767 | 4,913 |
| % of previous year's total demand | 1.5 | -0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Total demand | 396,759 | 396,075 | 397,654 | 412,099 | 427,773 |
| 13.4 | -0.2 | 0.4 | 3.6 | 3.8 | |
| Total domestic demand | 275,065 | 281,829 | 286,558 | 296,687 | 306,922 |
| 9.7 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 3.4 | |
| F=forecast. | |||||
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. |
| % in proportion to GDP at current prices | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2023f | 2024f | 2025f | 2026f | |
| GDP at market prices | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Imports of goods and services | 47.7 | 40.7 | 39.1 | 39.4 | 39.9 |
| Exports of goods and services | 45.3 | 40.6 | 38.9 | 39.0 | 39.5 |
| Consumption | 75.5 | 75.9 | 76.4 | 76.0 | 75.9 |
| Private | 51.5 | 51.1 | 51.3 | 51.1 | 50.9 |
| Public | 24.1 | 24.8 | 25.1 | 25.0 | 24.9 |
| Fixed investment | 24.2 | 22.9 | 22.2 | 22.7 | 22.9 |
| Private | 20.1 | 19.3 | 18.0 | 18.1 | 18.5 |
| Public | 4.1 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.4 |
| Inventory change + statistical discrepancy | 2.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Total demand | 147.7 | 140.7 | 139.1 | 139.4 | 139.9 |
| Total domestic demand | 102.4 | 100.2 | 100.2 | 100.4 | 100.4 |
| F=forecast. | |||||
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. |
| Index 2015 = 100, and % change on previous year | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2023f | 2024f | 2025f | 2026f | |
| Harmonised index of consumer prices, 2005=100 | 113.7 | 118.7 | 119.9 | 121.6 | 123.7 |
| 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 | |
| Consumer price index, 2005=100 | 113.4 | 120.4 | 122.0 | 122.8 | 124.8 |
| 7.1 | 6.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.6 | |
| Private consumption deflator | 112.2 | 117.6 | 119.3 | 121.2 | 123.5 |
| 6.1 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | |
| Private investment deflator | 121.1 | 126.9 | 125.6 | 127.5 | 129.8 |
| 6.6 | 4.8 | -1.0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | |
| Exports of goods and services deflator | 131.2 | 124.7 | 123.0 | 124.6 | 126.7 |
| 18.8 | -4.9 | -1.4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | |
| Imports of goods and services deflator | 130.7 | 126.1 | 124.4 | 126.0 | 128.0 |
| 19.7 | -3.6 | -1.3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | |
| Value-added deflators | |||||
| Value-added, gross at basic prices | 114.0 | 120.3 | 122.5 | 124.7 | 127.3 |
| 5.2 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 | |
| F=forecast. | |||||
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. |
| % change on previous year | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2023f | 2024f | 2025f | 2026f | |
| Whole economy | |||||
| Index of wage and salary earnings | 2.4 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Compensation per employee | 2.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 2.9 |
| Unit labour costs | 4.1 | 5.5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Labour productivity per employed person | -1.1 | -1.2 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| F=forecast. | |||||
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. |
| 1,000 persons and % change on previous year | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2023f | 2024f | 2025f | 2026f | |
| Labour force survey (15–74-year-olds) | |||||
| Employed persons | 2,618 | 2,635 | 2,625 | 2,633 | 2,641 |
| 2.8 | 0.6 | -0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | |
| Unemployed persons | 191 | 205 | 221 | 212 | 208 |
| -9.2 | 7.6 | 7.9 | -4.0 | -2.0 | |
| Labour force | 2,809 | 2,840 | 2,847 | 2,846 | 2,849 |
| 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | -0.0 | 0.1 | |
| Working-age population (15–64-year-olds) | 3,421 | 3,440 | 3,455 | 3,454 | 3,452 |
| 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.4 | -0.0 | -0.1 | |
| Labour force participation rate, % | 68.2 | 68.8 | 68.8 | 68.9 | 69.0 |
| Unemployment rate, % | 6.8 | 7.2 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 7.3 |
| Employment rate (20–64-year-olds), % | 78.1 | 78.0 | 77.2 | 77.4 | 77.7 |
| F=forecast. | |||||
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. |
| 2022 | 2023f | 2024f | 2025f | 2026f | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % relative to GDP | |||||
| General government revenue | 52.5 | 52.7 | 52.3 | 52.1 | 51.8 |
| General government expenditure | 53.3 | 54.3 | 56.0 | 55.8 | 55.3 |
| General government primary expenditure | 52.7 | 53.5 | 54.9 | 54.5 | 53.9 |
| General government interest expenditure | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| General government net lending | -0.8 | -1.6 | -3.7 | -3.6 | -3.5 |
| Central government | -1.6 | -2.3 | -3.5 | -3.7 | -3.7 |
| Local government | -0.2 | -0.6 | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.9 |
| Social security funds | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| General government primary balance | -0.2 | -0.8 | -2.6 | -2.4 | -2.1 |
| General government structural balance¹ | -0.7 | -0.9 | -2.4 | -2.6 | -2.9 |
| General government debt (EDP) | 73.3 | 75.0 | 77.0 | 79.2 | 81.2 |
| Central government debt | 52.7 | 55.4 | 57.0 | 59.2 | 61.1 |
| Tax ratio | 42.9 | 42.1 | 41.5 | 41.5 | 41.3 |
| Current prices, EUR billion | |||||
| General government net lending | -2.1 | -4.5 | -10.5 | -10.7 | -10.8 |
| Central government | -4.2 | -6.5 | -10.0 | -10.8 | -11.3 |
| Local government | -0.5 | -1.7 | -2.3 | -2.4 | -2.8 |
| Social security funds | 2.7 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 3.2 |
| General government debt (EDP) | 196.9 | 211.0 | 220.2 | 234.1 | 248.4 |
| 1Based on the cyclical adjustment method used by the European System of Central Banks. | |||||
| F=forecast. | |||||
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. |
| EUR billion | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2023f | 2024f | 2025f | 2026f | |
| Exports of goods and services (SNA) | 121.7 | 114.2 | 111.1 | 115.4 | 120.9 |
| Imports of goods and services (SNA) | 128.1 | 114.7 | 111.7 | 116.5 | 122.0 |
| Goods and services account (SNA) | -6.4 | -0.4 | -0.6 | -1.1 | -1.2 |
| % to GDP | -2.4 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.4 |
| Investment income and other items, net (+ statistical discrepancy) | 2.2 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 3.1 |
| Current transfers, net | -2.6 | -2.5 | -2.2 | -2.5 | -2.9 |
| Current account, net | -6.8 | -1.4 | -0.5 | -0.9 | -1.0 |
| Net lending, % to GDP | |||||
| Private sector | -1.7 | 1.1 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.2 |
| Public sector | -0.8 | -1.6 | -3.6 | -3.6 | -3.5 |
| Current account, % to GDP | -2.5 | -0.5 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| F=forecast. | |||||
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. |
| % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2023f | 2024f | 2025f | 2026f | |
| 3-month Euribor1 | 0.3 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 2.7 |
| Yield on Finnish 10-year government bonds1 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| 1Technical assumption derived from market expectations. | |||||
| 2Finnish credit institutions’ loans to households and non-financial corporations (excl. overdrafts, credit card credits and repurchase agreements). | |||||
| 3Finnish credit institutions’ deposits from households and non-financial corporations. | |||||
| F=forecast. | |||||
| Sources: ECB and Bank of Finland. | |||||
| The Eurosystem staff projections | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2023f | 2024f | 2025f | 2026f | |
| GDP, % change on previous year | |||||
| World (excl. euro area) | 3.3 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| USA | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Euro area | 3.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Japan | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Imports, % change on previous year | |||||
| World (excl. euro area) | 6.2 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.1 |
| USA | 8.6 | -1.4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| Euro area | 8.1 | -0.9 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 3.0 |
| Japan | 8.0 | -1.4 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| Index, 2015 = 100, and % change on previous year | |||||
| Import volume in Finnish export markets | 125.6 | 125.8 | 128.4 | 132.1 | 136.0 |
| 6.2 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 3.0 | |
| Export prices of Finland's trading partners, national currencies | 135.3 | 134.3 | 137.7 | 141.2 | 144.5 |
| 15.9 | -0.8 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.3 | |
| Export prices of Finland's trading partners, in euro | 127.0 | 121.8 | 123.8 | 126.9 | 129.9 |
| 18.9 | -4.1 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.3 | |
| Industrial raw materials (excl. energy), HWWA index, in US dollars | 162.9 | 141.4 | 138.2 | 141.5 | 143.9 |
| 6.6 | -13.2 | -2.3 | 2.4 | 1.7 | |
| Oil price, USD per barrel1 | 103.7 | 84.0 | 80.1 | 76.5 | 73.6 |
| 45.8 | -19.0 | -4.7 | -4.4 | -3.8 | |
| Finland's nominal effective exchange rate 2 | 106.6 | 110.3 | 111.3 | 111.3 | 111.3 |
| 2.6 | -3.4 | -0.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| US dollar value of one euro3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| -11.0 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 1Technical assumption derived from market expectations. | |||||
| 2 Broad nominal effective exchange rate, January – March 2015 = 100. The index rises as the currency depreciates. Assuming no changes in the exchange rate. | |||||
| 3 Assuming no changes in the exchange rate. | |||||
| F=forecast. | |||||
| Sources: ECB and Bank of Finland. | |||||
| 2022 | 2023f | 2024f | 2025f | 2026f | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP, % change | 1.6 | -0.5 | -0.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| June 2023 | 2.1 | -0.4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | |
| Inflation (HICP), % | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| June 2023 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | |
| Employment rate, % | 78.1 | 78.0 | 77.2 | 77.4 | 77.7 |
| June 2023 | 78.1 | 78.0 | 78.2 | 78.5 | |
| Unemployment rate, % | 6.8 | 7.2 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 7.3 |
| June 2023 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 7.0 | |
| Current account, % to GDP | -2.5 | -0.5 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| June 2023 | -3.9 | -0.5 | -0.2 | -0.3 | |
| General government net lending, % to GDP | -0.8 | -1.6 | -3.7 | -3.6 | -3.5 |
| June 2023 | -0.8 | -2.2 | -2.9 | -3.6 | |
| General government debt (EDP), % to GDP | 73.3 | 75.0 | 77.0 | 79.2 | 81.2 |
| June 2023 | 72.5 | 72.9 | 76.6 | 78.9 |
| F=forecast. | |||||
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. |