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Forecast tables for 2023–2025 (June 2023)
The Finnish economy will contract by 0.4% in 2023. Inflation is on its way down this year. Economic growth will pick up in 2024, albeit to a modest 0.9%. In 2025, growth in the economy will gather pace, reaching 1.5%.
| % change on previous year | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023f | 2024f | 2025f | |
| GDP at market prices | 3.0 | 2.1 | -0.4 | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Imports of goods and services | 6.0 | 7.5 | -3.0 | 1.9 | 3.3 |
| Exports of goods and services | 6.0 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| Private consumption | 3.6 | 2.1 | -0.4 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Public consumption | 3.9 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| Private fixed investment | 4.1 | 6.1 | -5.8 | -1.3 | 2.6 |
| Public fixed investment | -11.8 | -0.0 | -3.9 | 6.9 | 13.9 |
| F=forecast. | |||||
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. | |||||
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023f | 2024f | 2025f | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP, % change | 3.0 | 2.1 | -0.4 | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Net exports | -0.0 | -2.3 | 1.5 | 0.2 | -0.2 |
| Domestic demand excl. inventory change | 3.0 | 2.9 | -0.9 | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| of which Consumption | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Investment | 0.2 | 1.2 | -1.4 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Inventory change + statistical discrepancy | 0.0 | 1.5 | -1.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 Bank of Finland calculations. Annual growth rates using the previous year's GDP shares at current prices as weights. | |||||
| F=forecast. | |||||
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. | |||||
| Index 2015 = 100, and % change on previous year | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023f | 2024f | 2025f | |
| GDP at market prices | 108.5 | 113.1 | 119.3 | 121.6 | 123.8 |
| 2.1 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 1.8 | |
| Imports of goods and services | 109.3 | 130.8 | 126.0 | 126.7 | 129.3 |
| 9.6 | 19.7 | -3.7 | 0.5 | 2.1 | |
| Exports of goods and services | 110.5 | 131.4 | 127.3 | 129.2 | 132.3 |
| 9.6 | 18.9 | -3.1 | 1.5 | 2.4 | |
| Private consumption | 105.7 | 111.6 | 118.5 | 120.1 | 121.4 |
| 1.8 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 1.4 | 1.1 | |
| Public consumption | 108.3 | 110.7 | 116.1 | 118.8 | 122.2 |
| 2.8 | 2.1 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 2.8 | |
| Private fixed investment | 113.6 | 120.6 | 124.3 | 123.8 | 126.2 |
| 2.1 | 6.2 | 3.1 | -0.4 | 2.0 | |
| Public fixed investment | 110.9 | 116.4 | 119.8 | 118.4 | 120.2 |
| 3.1 | 5.0 | 2.9 | -1.1 | 1.5 | |
| Terms of trade (goods and services) | 101.1 | 100.4 | 101.0 | 102.0 | 102.3 |
| 0.0 | -0.7 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | |
| F=forecast. | |||||
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. | |||||
| EUR million and % change on previous year | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023f | 2024f | 2025f | |
| GDP at market prices | 250,590 | 266,824 | 280,419 | 288,340 | 298,043 |
| 5.3 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 3.4 | |
| Imports of goods and services | 98,889 | 127,056 | 118,631 | 121,490 | 128,044 |
| 16.3 | 28.5 | -6.6 | 2.4 | 5.4 | |
| Total supply | 349,479 | 393,880 | 399,050 | 409,830 | 426,087 |
| 8.2 | 12.7 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 4.0 | |
| Exports of goods and services | 99,114 | 119,716 | 116,090 | 120,662 | 127,043 |
| 16.3 | 20.8 | -3.0 | 3.9 | 5.3 | |
| Consumption | 190,062 | 203,009 | 215,854 | 221,414 | 227,092 |
| 5.9 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | |
| Private | 128,380 | 138,165 | 146,078 | 149,211 | 152,521 |
| 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 2.2 | |
| Public | 61,682 | 64,844 | 69,776 | 72,203 | 74,571 |
| 6.9 | 5.1 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 3.3 | |
| Fixed investment | 59,109 | 65,746 | 64,060 | 63,753 | 67,951 |
| 3.3 | 11.2 | -2.6 | -0.5 | 6.6 | |
| Private | 48,640 | 54,765 | 53,207 | 52,270 | 54,670 |
| 6.4 | 12.6 | -2.8 | -1.8 | 4.6 | |
| Public | 10,469 | 10,981 | 10,853 | 11,483 | 13,281 |
| -9.1 | 4.9 | -1.2 | 5.8 | 15.7 | |
| Inventory change + statistical discrepancy | 1,194 | 5,409 | 3,046 | 4,000 | 4,000 |
| % of previous year's total demand | 0.0 | 1.2 | -0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Total demand | 349,479 | 393,880 | 399,050 | 409,830 | 426,087 |
| 8.2 | 12.7 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 4.0 | |
| Total domestic demand | 250,365 | 274,164 | 282,959 | 289,167 | 299,043 |
| 5.3 | 9.5 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 3.4 | |
| F=forecast. | |||||
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. |
| % in proportion to GDP at current prices | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023f | 2024f | 2025f | |
| GDP at market prices | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Imports of goods and services | 39.5 | 47.6 | 42.3 | 42.1 | 43.0 |
| Exports of goods and services | 39.6 | 44.9 | 41.4 | 41.8 | 42.6 |
| Consumption | 75.8 | 76.1 | 77.0 | 76.8 | 76.2 |
| Private | 51.2 | 51.8 | 52.1 | 51.7 | 51.2 |
| Public | 24.6 | 24.3 | 24.9 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Fixed investment | 23.6 | 24.6 | 22.8 | 22.1 | 22.8 |
| Private | 19.4 | 20.5 | 19.0 | 18.1 | 18.3 |
| Public | 4.2 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.5 |
| Inventory change + statistical discrepancy | 0.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Total demand | 139.5 | 147.6 | 142.3 | 142.1 | 143.0 |
| Total domestic demand | 99.9 | 102.8 | 100.9 | 100.3 | 100.3 |
| F=forecast. | |||||
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. |
| Index 2015 = 100, and % change on previous year | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023f | 2024f | 2025f | |
| Harmonised index of consumer prices, 2005=100 | 106.1 | 113.7 | 118.8 | 120.4 | 122.3 |
| 2.1 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | |
| Consumer price index, 2005=100 | 105.8 | 113.4 | 120.1 | 121.7 | 123.0 |
| 2.2 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | |
| Private consumption deflator | 105.7 | 111.6 | 118.5 | 120.1 | 121.4 |
| 1.8 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 1.4 | 1.1 | |
| Private investment deflator | 113.6 | 120.6 | 124.3 | 123.8 | 126.2 |
| 2.1 | 6.2 | 3.1 | -0.4 | 2.0 | |
| Exports of goods and services deflator | 110.5 | 131.4 | 127.3 | 129.2 | 132.3 |
| 9.6 | 18.9 | -3.1 | 1.5 | 2.4 | |
| Imports of goods and services deflator | 109.3 | 130.8 | 126.0 | 126.7 | 129.3 |
| 9.6 | 19.7 | -3.7 | 0.5 | 2.1 | |
| Value-added deflators | |||||
| Value-added, gross at basic prices | 108.4 | 112.9 | 119.2 | 121.4 | 123.6 |
| 2.0 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 1.8 | |
| F=forecast. | |||||
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. |
| % change on previous year | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023f | 2024f | 2025f | |
| Whole economy | |||||
| Index of wage and salary earnings | 2.4 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 |
| Compensation per employee | 3.5 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 2.8 |
| Unit labour costs | 3.1 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 1.6 |
| Labour productivity per employed person | 0.5 | -0.6 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| F=forecast. | |||||
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. |
| 1,000 persons and % change on previous year | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023f | 2024f | 2025f | |
| Labour force survey (15–74-year-olds) | |||||
| Employed persons | 2,548 | 2,618 | 2,619 | 2,624 | 2,633 |
| 2.6 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | |
| Unemployed persons | 210 | 191 | 202 | 200 | 197 |
| 0.7 | -9.2 | 6.0 | -1.1 | -1.5 | |
| Labour force | 2,758 | 2,809 | 2,821 | 2,824 | 2,830 |
| 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | |
| Working-age population (15–64-year-olds) | 3,417 | 3,421 | 3,432 | 3,430 | 3,429 |
| -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | -0.0 | -0.0 | |
| Labour force participation rate, % | 67 | 68 | 68 | 69 | 69 |
| Unemployment rate, % | 7.6 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 7.0 |
| Employment rate (20–64-year-olds), % | 76.5 | 78.1 | 78.0 | 78.2 | 78.5 |
| F=forecast. | |||||
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. |
| 9. GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE, EXPENDITURE, BALANCE AND DEBT |
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023f | 2024f | 2025f | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % relative to GDP | |||||
| General government revenue | 53.0 | 52.5 | 52.3 | 52.2 | 51.8 |
| General government expenditure | 55.7 | 53.3 | 54.5 | 55.1 | 55.5 |
| General government primary expenditure | 55.2 | 52.8 | 53.7 | 54.1 | 54.2 |
| General government interest expenditure | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| General government net lending | -2.7 | -0.8 | -2.2 | -2.9 | -3.6 |
| Central government | -3.2 | -1.6 | -2.6 | -3.2 | -4.0 |
| Local government | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.7 | -0.8 | -0.8 |
| Social security funds | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| General government primary balance | -2.2 | -0.3 | -1.4 | -1.9 | -2.4 |
| General government structural balance¹ | -2.0 | -0.8 | -1.6 | -2.2 | -3.2 |
| General government debt (EDP) | 72.6 | 73.0 | 73.2 | 75.9 | 78.3 |
| Central government debt | 51.4 | 53.1 | 53.8 | 56.4 | 58.8 |
| Tax ratio | 43.1 | 43.1 | 42.6 | 42.4 | 42.1 |
| Current prices, EUR billion | |||||
| General government net lending | -6.8 | -2.2 | -6.1 | -8.5 | -10.9 |
| Central government | -8.1 | -4.3 | -7.2 | -9.2 | -12.1 |
| Local government | -0.9 | -0.8 | -2.0 | -2.3 | -2.5 |
| Social security funds | 2.1 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.7 |
| General government debt (EDP) | 181.9 | 194.8 | 205.2 | 218.9 | 233.3 |
| 1Based on the cyclical adjustment method used by the European System of Central Banks. | |||||
| F=forecast. | |||||
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. |
| EUR billion | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023f | 2024f | 2025f | |
| Exports of goods and services (SNA) | 99.1 | 119.7 | 116.1 | 120.7 | 127.0 |
| Imports of goods and services (SNA) | 98.9 | 127.1 | 118.6 | 121.5 | 128.0 |
| Goods and services account (SNA) | 0.2 | -7.3 | -2.5 | -0.8 | -1.0 |
| % to GDP | 0.1 | -2.8 | -0.9 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| Investment income and other items, net (+ statistical discrepancy) | 3.9 | -0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Current transfers, net | -2.9 | -2.6 | -2.4 | -2.4 | -2.7 |
| Current account, net | 1.2 | -10.3 | -4.4 | -2.6 | -3.0 |
| Net lending, % to GDP | |||||
| Private sector | 3.2 | -3.1 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 2.6 |
| Public sector | -2.7 | -0.8 | -2.2 | -2.9 | -3.6 |
| Current account, % to GDP | 0.5 | -3.9 | -1.6 | -0.9 | -1.0 |
| F=forecast. | |||||
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. |
| % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023f | 2024f | 2025f | |
| 3-month Euribor1 | -0.5 | 0.3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.9 |
| Yield on Finnish 10-year government bonds1 | -0.1 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| 1Technical assumption derived from market expectations. | |||||
| 2Finnish credit institutions’ loans to households and non-financial corporations (excl. overdrafts, credit card credits and repurchase agreements). | |||||
| 3Finnish credit institutions’ deposits from households and non-financial corporations. | |||||
| F=forecast. | |||||
| Sources: ECB and Bank of Finland. | |||||
| The Eurosystem staff projections | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023f | 2024f | 2025f | |
| GDP, % change on previous year | |||||
| World (excl. euro area) | 6.7 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.3 |
| USA | 5.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| Euro area | 5.3 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Japan | 2.2 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Imports, % change on previous year | |||||
| World (excl. euro area) | 12.9 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 3.4 | 3.4 |
| USA | 14.1 | 8.1 | -0.7 | 2.7 | 3.2 |
| Euro area | 11.2 | 6.3 | 0.5 | 3.1 | 3.1 |
| Japan | 5.1 | 8.0 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| Index, 2015 = 100, and % change on previous year | |||||
| Import volume in Finnish export markets | 117.8 | 124.8 | 126.1 | 130.0 | 134.0 |
| 10.9 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 3.1 | |
| Export prices of Finland's trading partners, national currencies | 116.6 | 135.3 | 136.5 | 140.0 | 143.3 |
| 10.6 | 16.0 | 0.9 | 2.6 | 2.3 | |
| Export prices of Finland's trading partners, in euro | 106.6 | 126.9 | 124.5 | 127.5 | 130.5 |
| 9.9 | 19.0 | -1.9 | 2.4 | 2.3 | |
| Industrial raw materials (excl. energy), HWWA index, in US dollars | 152.9 | 162.9 | 144.1 | 141.3 | 143.1 |
| 42.1 | 6.6 | -11.5 | -2.0 | 1.3 | |
| Oil price, USD per barrel1 | 71.1 | 103.7 | 78.0 | 72.6 | 70.4 |
| 71.3 | 45.8 | -24.7 | -7.0 | -3.1 | |
| Finland's nominal effective exchange rate 2 | 109.4 | 106.6 | 109.6 | 109.8 | 109.8 |
| -0.7 | 2.6 | -2.7 | -0.2 | 0.0 | |
| US dollar value of one euro3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| 3.7 | -11.0 | 2.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| 1Technical assumption derived from market expectations. | |||||
| 2 Broad nominal effective exchange rate, January – March 2015 = 100. The index rises as the currency depreciates. Assuming no changes in the exchange rate. | |||||
| 3 Assuming no changes in the exchange rate. | |||||
| F=forecast. | |||||
| Sources: ECB and Bank of Finland. | |||||
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023f | 2024f | 2025f | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP, % change | 3.0 | 2.1 | -0.4 | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| December 2022 | 3.0 | 1.9 | -0.5 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Inflation (HICP), % | 2.1 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| December 2022 | 2.1 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Employment rate, % | 72.1 | 73.8 | 73.7 | 73.9 | 74.1 |
| December 2022 | 72.1 | 73.7 | 73.6 | 73.8 | 74.1 |
| Unemployment rate, % | 7.6 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 7.0 |
| December 2022 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 7.1 |
| Current account, % to GDP | 0.5 | -3.9 | -1.6 | -0.9 | -1.0 |
| December 2022 | 0.6 | -3.9 | -1.6 | -0.9 | -1.0 |
| General government net lending, % to GDP | -2.7 | -0.8 | -2.2 | -2.9 | -3.6 |
| December 2022 | -2.7 | -0.9 | -1.8 | -2.0 | -2.6 |
| General government debt (EDP), % to GDP | 72.6 | 73.0 | 73.2 | 75.9 | 78.3 |
| December 2022 | 72.6 | 73.3 | 72.4 | 74.2 | 75.9 |
| F=forecast. | |||||
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. |