Add to download list + Remove from download list -
Print page
Article content

Forecast tables

Forecast tables for 2021–2023 (June 2021)

The Finnish economy will grow 2.9% in 2021 and 3.0% in 2022. This fast pace of growth will, however, be only temporary, and in 2023, GDP growth will slow to 1.3%.

Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.   
1. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, VOLUMES, AT REFERENCE YEAR 2015 PRICES
Volume, % change on previous year          
  2019 2020  2021e  2022e  2023e
GDP at market prices 1.3 -2.8 2.9 3.0 1.3
Imports of goods and services 2.2 -6.6 5.4 5.3 3.1
Exports of goods and services 6.7 -6.6 5.9 5.5 3.0
Private consumption 0.7 -4.9 3.3 4.6 1.3
Public consumption 2.0 2.3 2.4 -0.9 0.7
Private fixed investment -1.6 -4.6 1.3 3.7 2.6
Public fixed investment 2.3 3.4 2.7 1.5 1.4
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.    
2. CONTRIBUTIONS TO GROWTH1
  2019 2020  2021e  2022e  2023e
GDP, % change 1.3 -2.8 2.9 3.0 1.3
Net exports 1.7 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1
Domestic demand excl. inventory change 0.6 -2.8 2.6 2.9 2.9
of which Consumption 0.8 -2.0 2.3 2.1 2.1
         Investment -0.2 -0.7 0.4 0.8 0.8
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1 Bank of Finland calculations. Annual growth rates using the previous year's GDP shares at current prices as weights.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.  
3. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, PRICE DEFLATORS     
Index 2015 = 100. and % change on previous year
  2019 2020  2021e  2022e  2023e
GDP at market prices 116.9 118.8 120.6 122.3 124.3
  1.5 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.6
Imports of goods and services 105.5 99.9 104.3 106.4 107.8
  0 -5.3 4.4 2.0 1.3
Exports of goods and services 106.7 101.8 105.8 107.4 108.7
  -0.3 -4.6 3.9 1.5 1.3
Private consumption 114.4 114.9 116.8 118.5 120.5
  1.0 0.4 1.7 1.4 1.7
Public consumption 116.2 118.4 120.8 122.8 124.8
  2.2 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.6
Private fixed investment 120.1 121.4 123.1 125.5 128.0
  3.2 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.0
Public fixed investment 118.2 118.6 119.3 120.9 122.1
  2.8 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.0
Terms of trade (goods and services) 101.1 101.8 101.4 100.9 100.9
  -0.7 0.7 -0.4 -0.5 -0.1
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.  
4. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, AT CURRENT PRICES
EUR million and % change on previous year
  2019 2020  2021e  2022e  2023e
GDP at market prices 240,261 237,467 247,914 258,850 266,603
  2.8 -1.2 4.4 4.4 3.0
Imports of goods and services 95,200 84,240 92,682 99,509 104,017
  2.6 -11.5 10.0 7.4 4.5
Total supply 335,461 321,707 340,596 358,359 370,620
  2.8 -4.1 5.9 5.2 3.4
Exports of goods and services 95,568 85,157 93,763 100,438 104,741
  6.4 -10.9 10.1 7.1 4.3
Consumption 181,701 178,373 187,102 195,247 200,650
  2.5 -1.8 4.9 4.4 2.8
  Private 125,944 120,263 126,368 134,068 138,032
  1.7 -4.5 5.1 6.1 3.0
  Public 55,757 58,110 60,734 61,179 62,618
  4.2 4.2 4.5 0.7 2.4
Fixed investment 57,318 56,041 57,606 60,549 63,104
  2.2 -2.2 2.8 5.1 4.2
  Private 46,836 45,164 46,368 48,988 51,264
  1.5 -3.6 2.7 5.7 4.6
  Public 10,482 10,877 11,238 11,561 11,840
  5.2 3.8 3.3 2.9 2.4
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy 874 2,136 2,125 2,125 2,125
% of previous year's total demand -0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total demand 335,461 321,707 340,596 358,359 370,620
  2.8 -4.1 5.9 5.2 3.4
Total domestic demand 239,893 236,550 246,833 257,921 265,879
  1.4 -1.4 4.3 4.5 3.1
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.  
5. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND 
% in proportion to GDP at current prices    
  2019 2020  2021e  2022e  2023e
GDP at market prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Imports of goods and services 39.6 35.5 37.4 38.4 39.0
Exports of goods and services 39.8 35.9 37.8 38.8 39.3
Consumption 75.6 75.1 75.5 75.4 75.3
   Private 52.4 50.6 51.0 51.8 51.8
   Public 23.2 24.5 24.5 23.6 23.5
Fixed investment 23.9 23.6 23.2 23.4 23.7
   Private 19.5 19.0 18.7 18.9 19.2
   Public 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8
Total demand 139.6 135.5 137.4 138.4 139.0
Total domestic demand 99.8 99.6 99.6 99.6 99.7
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.  
6. PRICES
Index 2015 = 100, and % change on previous year
  2019 2020  2021e  2022e  2023e
Harmonised index of consumer prices 103.6 104.0 105.8 107.2 108.9
  1.1 0.4 1.7 1.4 1.6
Consumer price index 103.3 103.5 105.3 106.8 108.5
  1.0 0.3 1.7 1.4 1.6
Private consumption deflator 114.4 114.9 116.8 118.5 120.5
  1.0 0.4 1.7 1.4 1.7
Private investment deflator 120.1 121.4 123.1 125.5 128.0
  3.2 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.0
Exports of goods and services deflator 106.7 101.8 105.8 107.4 108.7
  -0.3 -4.6 3.9 1.5 1.3
Imports of goods and services deflator 105.5 99.9 104.3 106.4 107.8
  0.4 -5.3 4.4 2.0 1.3
Value-added deflators          
Value-added, gross at basic prices 116.9 119.0 120.7 122.4 124.4
  1.5 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.6
     Private sector 104.9 106.3 107.8 109.2 110.9
  1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.6
     Public sector 117.5 121.8 124.1 126.1 128.1
  2.6 3.6 1.9 1.7 1.6
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.  
7. WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
% change on previous year    
  2019 2020  2021e  2022e  2023e
Whole economy          
     Index of wage and salary earnings 2.1 1.8 2.3 2.0 2.3
     Compensation per employee 1.3 -0.1 4.2 2.3 2.1
     Unit labour costs 1.1 1.1 2.2 0.3 1.5
     Labour productivity per employed person 0.2 -1.3 2.0 2.0 0.7
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.  
8. LABOUR MARKET
1,000 persons and % change on previous year
  2019 2020  2021e  2022e  2023e
Labour force survey (15–74-year-olds)          
Employed persons 2,534 2,495 2,517 2,541 2,558
  1.1 -1.5 0.9 1.0 0.7
Unemployed persons 183 209 209 190 182
  -9.0 14.0 -0.1 -9.1 -3.8
Labour force 2,717 2,704 2,725 2,731 2,741
  0.3 -0.5 0.8 0.2 0.4
Working-age population (15–64-year-olds) 3,428 3,421 3,416 3,412 3,412
  -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0
Labour force participation rate, % 65.8 65.4 66.1 66.5 66.9
Unemployment rate, % 6.7 7.7 7.7 6.9 6.7
Employment rate (15–64-year-olds), % 71.6 70.7 71.4 72.2 72.7
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.  
9. GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE. EXPENDITURE. BALANCE AND DEBT
  2019 2020  2021e  2022e  2023e
% of GDP            
General government revenue 52.2 51.2 51.6 51.3 51.1
General government expenditure 53.2 56.7 55.9 53.8 53.3
General government primary expenditure 52.4 56.0 55.3 53.2 52.8
General government interest expenditure 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5
General government net lending -1.0 -5.4 -4.4 -2.5 -2.2
Central government net lending -1.1 -5.6 -4.6 -2.7 -2.2
Local government net lending -1.3 0.1 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7
Social security funds 1.4 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.7
General government primary balance -0.2 -4.8 -3.7 -1.9 -1.7
           
General government debt (consolidated. EDP) 59.5 69.2 71.4 71.6 72.8
Central government debt 44.3 52.6 55.2 55.7 56.9
Tax ratio 42.2 41.7 42.3 42.1 41.9
Current prices, EUR billion          
General government net lending -2,393 -12,924 -10,800 -6,489 -5,893
Central government net lending -2,703 -13,370 -11,456 -6,939 -5,786
Local government net lending -3,013 175 -1,441 -1,523 -1,878
Social security funds 3,323 271 2,096 1,973 1,770
General government debt (consolidated. EDP) 142,874 164,266 176,972 185,305 194,201
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.  
10. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS   
EUR billion     
  2019 2020  2021e  2022e  2023e
Exports of goods and services (SNA) 95.6 85.2 93.8 100.4 104.7
Imports of goods and services (SNA) 95.2 84.2 92.7 99.5 104.0
Goods and services account (SNA) 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.7
     % to GDP 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
           
Investment income and other items, net (+ statistical discrepancy) 1.2 2.6 1.5 1.5 1.5
Current transfers, net -2.3 -2.8 -2.7 -2.6 -2.7
Current account, net -0.8 7.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5
Net lending, % to GDP              
     Private sector 0.7 5.7 4.3 2.4 2.0
     Public sector -1.0 -5.4 -4.4 -2.5 -2.2
Current account, % to GDP -0.3 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.  
11. INTEREST RATES   
%
  2019 2020  2021e  2022e  2023e
3-month Euribor1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3
Average interest rate on new loan drawdowns2 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7
Average interest rate on the stock of loans2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3
Average interest rate on the stock of deposits3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Yield on Finnish 10-year government bonds1 0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5
1 Technical assumption derived from market expectations.
2 Finnish credit institutions' loans to households and non-financial corporations (excl. overdrafts and credit card credits, repurchase agreements and non-recourse factoring).
3 Finnish credit institutions' deposits from households and non-financial corporations.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.  
12. INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
The Eurosystem staff projections   
  2019 2020  2021e  2022e  2023e
Real GDP, volume, % change on previous year          
World 2.7 -2.9 6.0 4.3 3.5
USA 2.2 -3.5 6.6 3.8 2.3
Euro area 1.3 -6.8 4.6 4.7 2.1
Japan 0.0 -4.7 2.4 2.3 1.2
Real imports, volume, % change on previous year              
World 0.8 -8.7 10.0 5.5 3.7
USA 1.1 -9.3 13.6 5.6 3.7
Euro area 3.8 -9.3 8.3 7.0 3.6
Japan 1.1 -7.3 6.4 5.9 4.2
Index, 2015 = 100, and % change on previous year              
Import volume in Finnish export markets 115.0 105.2 114.4 121.0 125.2
  1.5 -8.6 8.7 5.8 3.5
Export prices of Finland's competitors (excl. oil), in national currencies 107.1 105.4 111.2 112.7 113.8
  0.9 -1.6 5.5 1.4 1.0
Export prices of Finland's industrial competitors (excl. oil), in euro 101.0 97.0 101.0 102.3 103.3
  1.6 -4.0 4.1 1.3 1.0
Industrial raw materials (excl. energy), HWWA index, in US dollars 119.0 121.2 179.9 181.1 165.1
  -5.3 1.8 48.4 0.6 -8.8
Oil price, USD per barrel1 64.0 42.3 65.8 64.6 61.9
  -9.9 -33.9 55.6 -1.9 -4.1
Finland's nominal competitiveness indicator2 93.8 91.6 90.4 90.3 90.3
  -0.7 2.5 1.3 0.1 0.0
US dollar value of one euro3 1.12 1.14 1.21 1.21 1.21
  -5.2 2.0 5.8 0.2 0.0
1 Technical assumption derived from market expectations.
2 Narrow, supplemented with euro area countries, January–March 1999 = 100.
3 Exchange rates assumed stable during the forecast period.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.  
13. CURRENT AND DECEMBER 2020 FORECAST
  2019 2020  2021e  2022e  2023e
GDP, % change 1.3 -2.8 2.9 3.0 1.3
December 2020 1.1 -3.8 2.2 2.5 1.5
Inflation (HICP), % 1.1 0.4 1.7 1.4 1.6
December 2020 1.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.5
Current account, % to GDP -0.3 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2
December 2020 -0.2 -0.7 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4
General government net lending, % to GDP -1.0 -5.4 -4.4 -2.5 -2.2
December 2020 -1.0 -7.1 -4.7 -3.2 -2.4
General government debt (EDP), % to GDP 59.5 69.2 71.4 71.6 72.8
December 2020 59.3 68.4 71.3 72.6 74.0
Unemployment rate, % 6.7 7.7 7.7 6.9 6.7
December 2020 6.7 7.8 8.3 7.7 7.4
Employment rate, 15–64-year-olds, % 71.6 70.7 71.4 72.2 72.7
December 2020 72.5 71.6 71.8 72.7 73.2
Linkedin
Back to top