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Forecast tables
Forecast tables for 2020–2022 (June 2020)
The Finnish economy will contract by around 7% this year and grow around 3% per annum over the next 2 years. The forecast contains a large degree of uncertainty – the contraction could be only 5% or as much as 11%, depending on how the pandemic develops. See forecast tables for the Finnish economy in 2020–2022 (June 2020).
June 2020
| 1. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, VOLUMES, AT REFERENCE YEAR 2010 PRICES | |||||
| Volume, % change on previous year | |||||
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020f | 2021f | 2022f | |
| GDP at market prices | 1.6 | 1.0 | –6.9 | 3.0 | 2.9 |
| Imports of goods and services | 5.5 | 2.2 | –9.4 | 2.4 | 6.8 |
| Exports of goods and services | 1.7 | 7.2 | –15.8 | 4.4 | 7.0 |
| Private consumption | 1.7 | 1.0 | –6.4 | 4.6 | 3.4 |
| Public consumption | 2.1 | 0.9 | 5.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Private fixed investment | 3.5 | –1.0 | –12.4 | –1.1 | 6.0 |
| Public fixed investment | 5.0 | 0.3 | 6.0 | –0.3 | 0.4 |
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. | |||||
| 2. CONTRIBUTIONS TO GROWTH1 | |||||
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020f | 2021f | 2022f | |
| GDP, % change | 1.6 | 1.0 | –6.9 | 3.0 | 2.9 |
| Net exports | –1.4 | 1.9 | –2.6 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| Domestic demand excl. inventory change | 2.3 | 0.5 | –4.2 | 2.3 | 2.9 |
| of which Consumption | 1.5 | 0.7 | –2.1 | 2.5 | 1.8 |
| Investment | 0.9 | –0.2 | –2.2 | –0.2 | 1.0 |
| Inventory change + statistical discrepancy | 0.7 | –1.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 Bank of Finland calculations. Annual growth rates using the previous year's GDP shares at current prices as weights. | |||||
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. | |||||
| 3. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND. PRICE DEFLATORS | |||||
| Index 2010 = 100. and % change on previous year | |||||
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020f | 2021f | 2022f | |
| GDP at market prices | 114.9 | 117.0 | 117.3 | 118.4 | 120.5 |
| 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | |
| Imports of goods and services | 105.1 | 105.4 | 101.6 | 102.6 | 103.9 |
| 3.4 | 0.3 | –3.6 | 1.0 | 1.2 | |
| Exports of goods and services | 107.3 | 106.6 | 103.9 | 104.4 | 105.9 |
| 4.2 | –0.7 | –2.5 | 0.4 | 1.5 | |
| Private consumption | 113.1 | 114.3 | 114.6 | 115.4 | 117.1 |
| 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 1.4 | |
| Public consumption | 113.7 | 117.0 | 117.6 | 119.1 | 121.5 |
| 1.4 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 2.0 | |
| Private fixed investment | 116.6 | 119.8 | 117.1 | 118.6 | 121.1 |
| 2.6 | 2.8 | –2.3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | |
| Public fixed investment | 115.2 | 117.1 | 117.7 | 119.2 | 121.0 |
| 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | |
| Terms of trade (goods and services) | 102.1 | 101.1 | 102.3 | 101.7 | 102.0 |
| 0.8 | –1.0 | 1.1 | –0.6 | 0.3 | |
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. | |||||
| 4. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, AT CURRENT PRICES | |||||
| EUR million and % change on previous year | |||||
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020f | 2021f | 2022f | |
| GDP at market prices | 233,619 | 240,078 | 224,189 | 232,995 | 244,144 |
| 3.4 | 2.8 | –6.6 | 3.9 | 4.8 | |
| Imports of goods and services | 92,499 | 94,807 | 82,818 | 85,614 | 92,521 |
| 9.0 | 2.5 | –12.6 | 3.4 | 8.1 | |
| Total supply | 326,118 | 334,885 | 307,007 | 318,609 | 336,666 |
| 5.0 | 2.7 | –8.3 | 3.8 | 5.7 | |
| Exports of goods and services | 90,174 | 95,975 | 78,743 | 82,582 | 89,674 |
| 6.0 | 6.4 | –18.0 | 4.9 | 8.6 | |
| Consumption | 177,129 | 181,711 | 177,232 | 184,521 | 191,849 |
| 3.1 | 2.6 | –2.5 | 4.1 | 4.0 | |
| Private | 123,740 | 126,256 | 118,433 | 124,890 | 130,948 |
| 3.0 | 2.0 | –6.2 | 5.5 | 4.9 | |
| Public | 53,389 | 55,455 | 58,799 | 59,631 | 60,901 |
| 3.5 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 1.4 | 2.1 | |
| Fixed investment | 55,819 | 56,816 | 50,720 | 50,894 | 54,370 |
| 6.3 | 1.8 | –10.7 | 0.3 | 6.8 | |
| Private | 45,956 | 46,760 | 40,006 | 40,075 | 43,351 |
| 6.2 | 1.7 | –14.4 | 0.2 | 8.2 | |
| Public | 9,863 | 10,056 | 10,715 | 10,819 | 11,020 |
| 7.0 | 2.0 | 6.6 | 1.0 | 1.9 | |
| Inventory change + statistical discrepancy | 2 997 | 383 | 311 | 612 | 772 |
| % of previous year's total demand | 0.5 | –0.8 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Total demand | 326,118 | 334,885 | 307,007 | 318,609 | 336,666 |
| 5.0 | 2.7 | –8.3 | 3.8 | 5.7 | |
| Total domestic demand | 235,944 | 238,910 | 228,264 | 236,026 | 246,992 |
| 4.6 | 1.3 | –4.5 | 3.4 | 4.6 | |
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. | |||||
| 5. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND | |||||
| % in proportion to GDP at current prices | |||||
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020f | 2021f | 2022f | |
| GDP at market prices | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Imports of goods and services | 39.6 | 39.5 | 36.9 | 36.7 | 37.9 |
| Exports of goods and services | 38.6 | 40.0 | 35.1 | 35.4 | 36.7 |
| Consumption | 75.8 | 75.7 | 79.1 | 79.2 | 78.6 |
| Private | 53.0 | 52.6 | 52.8 | 53.6 | 53.6 |
| Public | 22.9 | 23.1 | 26.2 | 25.6 | 24.9 |
| Fixed investment | 23.9 | 23.7 | 22.6 | 21.8 | 22.3 |
| Private | 19.7 | 19.5 | 17.8 | 17.2 | 17.8 |
| Public | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.5 |
| Inventory change + statistical discrepancy | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Total demand | 139.6 | 139.5 | 136.9 | 136.7 | 137.9 |
| Total domestic demand | 101.0 | 99.5 | 101.8 | 101.3 | 101.2 |
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. | |||||
| 6. PRICES | |||||
| Index 2010 = 100, and % change on previous year | |||||
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020f | 2021f | 2022f | |
| Harmonised index of consumer prices, 2015 = 100 | 102.4 | 103.6 | 103.7 | 104.5 | 105.8 |
| 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.3 | |
| Consumer price index, 2015 = 100 | 102.2 | 103.3 | 103.3 | 104.0 | 105.4 |
| 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.3 | |
| Private consumption deflator | 113.1 | 114.3 | 114.6 | 115.4 | 117.1 |
| 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 1.4 | |
| Private investment deflator | 116.6 | 119.8 | 117.1 | 118.6 | 121.1 |
| 2.6 | 2.8 | –2.3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | |
| Exports of goods and services deflator | 107.3 | 106.6 | 103.9 | 104.4 | 105.9 |
| 4.2 | –0.7 | –2.5 | 0.4 | 1.5 | |
| Imports of goods and services deflator | 105.1 | 105.4 | 101.6 | 102.6 | 103.9 |
| 3.4 | 0.3 | –3.6 | 1.0 | 1.2 | |
| Value-added deflators | |||||
| Value-added, gross at basic prices | 114.8 | 117.1 | 117.6 | 118.9 | 121.0 |
| 1.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | |
| Private sector | 115.0 | 116.8 | 117.2 | 118.5 | 120.5 |
| 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | |
| Public sector | 113.9 | 118.0 | 118.9 | 120.4 | 122.8 |
| 1.6 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 2.0 | |
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. | |||||
| 7. WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY | |||||
| % change on previous year | |||||
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020f | 2021f | 2022f | |
| Whole economy | |||||
| Index of wage and salary earnings | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| Compensation per employee | 1.2 | 1.6 | –0.5 | 5.4 | 2.2 |
| Unit labour costs | 2.1 | 1.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.1 |
| Labour productivity per employed person | –0.9 | –0.1 | –4.2 | 3.5 | 2.1 |
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. | |||||
| 8. LABOUR MARKET | |||||
| 1.000 persons and % change on previous year | |||||
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020f | 2021f | 2022f | |
| Labour force survey (15–74-year-olds) | |||||
| Employed persons | 2 538 | 2 567 | 2 495 | 2 483 | 2 503 |
| 2.6 | 1.1 | –2.8 | –0.5 | 0.8 | |
| Unemployed persons | 202 | 184 | 247 | 255 | 240 |
| –13.8 | –8.7 | 34.0 | 3.4 | –5.8 | |
| Labour force | 2 740 | 2 751 | 2 742 | 2 739 | 2 744 |
| 1.2 | 0.4 | –0.3 | –0.1 | 0.2 | |
| Working-age population (15–64-year-olds) | 3 439 | 3 428 | 3 422 | 3 415 | 3 411 |
| –0.4 | –0.3 | –0.2 | –0.2 | –0.1 | |
| Labour force participation rate, % | 66.4 | 66.6 | 66.5 | 66.6 | 66.9 |
| Unemployment rate, % | 7.4 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 8.8 |
| Employment rate (15–64-year-olds), % | 71.7 | 72.5 | 70.8 | 70.6 | 71.2 |
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. | |||||
| 9. GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE. EXPENDITURE. BALANCE AND DEBT | |||||
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020f | 2021f | 2022f | |
| % of GDP | |||||
| General government revenue | 52.5 | 52.2 | 52.3 | 53.1 | 52.7 |
| General government expenditure | 53.4 | 53.3 | 60.3 | 58.0 | 56.5 |
| General government primary expenditure | 52.5 | 52.4 | 59.5 | 57.2 | 55.7 |
| General government interest expenditure | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| General government net lending | –0.9 | –1.1 | –8.0 | –4.9 | –3.8 |
| Central government net lending | –1.2 | –1.2 | –5.7 | –3.1 | –2.3 |
| Local government net lending | –0.9 | –1.2 | –2.1 | –2.0 | –2.0 |
| Social security funds | 1.3 | 1.2 | –0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| General government primary balance | 0.1 | –0.3 | –7.1 | –4.1 | –3.1 |
| General government debt (consolidated. EDP) | 59.2 | 59.4 | 71.3 | 73.3 | 74.5 |
| Central government debt | 44.9 | 44.3 | 53.3 | 54.1 | 54.3 |
| Tax ratio | 42.4 | 42.1 | 42.1 | 43.1 | 42.8 |
| Current prices, EUR billion | |||||
| General government net lending | –2.0 | –2.7 | –17.9 | –11.4 | –9.3 |
| Central government net lending | –2.8 | –2.8 | –12.7 | –7.3 | –5.5 |
| Local government net lending | –2.1 | –2.9 | –4.7 | –4.7 | –4.8 |
| Social security funds | 2.9 | 2.9 | –0.5 | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| General government debt (consolidated. EDP) | 138.412 | 142.507 | 159,.003 | 170.8651 | 181.9764 |
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. | |||||
| 10. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS | |||||
| EUR billion | |||||
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020f | 2021f | 2022f | |
| Exports of goods and services (SNA) | 90.2 | 96.0 | 78.7 | 82.6 | 89.7 |
| Imports of goods and services (SNA) | 92.5 | 94.8 | 82.8 | 85.6 | 92.5 |
| Goods and services account (SNA) | –2.3 | 1.2 | –4.1 | –3.0 | –2.8 |
| % to GDP | –1.0 | 0.5 | –1.8 | –1.3 | –1.2 |
| Investment income and other items, net (+ statistical discrepancy) | 0.9 | –0.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Current transfers, net | –2.3 | –2.4 | –2.4 | –2.6 | –2.7 |
| Current account, net | –3.8 | –18.1 | –5.0 | –4.4 | –4.3 |
| Net lending, % to GDP | |||||
| Private sector | –0.8 | 0.4 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 2.0 |
| Public sector | –0.9 | –1.1 | –8.0 | –4.9 | –3.8 |
| Current account, % to GDP | –1.6 | –0.8 | –2.3 | –1.9 | –1.8 |
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. | |||||
| 11. INTEREST RATES | |||||
| % | |||||
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020f | 2021f | 2022f | |
| 3-month Euribor1 | –0.3 | –0.4 | –0.4 | –0.4 | –0.4 |
| Average interest rate on new loan drawdowns2 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Average interest rate on the stock of loans2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Average interest rate on the stock of deposits3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Yield on Finnish 10-year government bonds1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 Tehnical assumption derived from market expectations. | |||||
| 2 Finnish credit institutions' loans to households and non-financial corporations (excl. overdrafts. credit card credits and repurchase agreements). | |||||
| 3 Finnish credit institutions' deposits from households and non-financial corporations. | |||||
| Source: Bank of Finland. | |||||
| 12. INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT | |||||
| The Eurosystem staff projections | |||||
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020f | 2021f | 2022f | |
| Real GDP, volume, % change on previous year | |||||
| World | 2.9 | 0.9 | –4.5 | 6.0 | 4.8 |
| USA | 2.9 | 2.3 | –6.4 | 3.6 | 2.1 |
| Euro area | 1.9 | 1.2 | –8.7 | 5.2 | 3.3 |
| Japan | 0.3 | 0.7 | –5.5 | 2.5 | 1.08656 |
| Real imports, volume, % change on previous year | |||||
| World | 4.6 | –0.3 | –12.9 | 8.0 | 4.3 |
| USA | 4.4 | 1.0 | –17.7 | 10.2 | 3.8 |
| Euro area | 2.7 | 3.9 | –12.0 | 7.4 | 5.3 |
| Japan | 3.7 | –0.6 | –11.7 | 3.9 | 1.4 |
| Index, 2010 = 100, and % change on previous year | |||||
| Import volume in Finnish export markets | 112.8 | 114.7 | 98.5 | 107.2 | 112.7 |
| 3.7 | 1.6 | –14.1 | 8.8 | 5.1 | |
| Export prices of Finland's competitors (excl. oil), in national currencies | 106.4 | 107.7 | 105.4 | 106.7 | 109.2 |
| 5.3 | 1.2 | –2.1 | 1.2 | 2.4 | |
| Export prices of Finland's industrial competitors (excl. oil), in euro | 99.7 | 101.3 | 97.6 | 98.4 | 100.8 |
| 1.4 | 1.6 | –3.7 | 0.9 | 2.4 | |
| Industrial raw materials (excl. energy), HWWA index, in US dollars | 124.8 | 124.2 | 113.7 | 117.3 | 121.6 |
| 5.6 | –0.5 | –8.5 | 3.2 | 3.7 | |
| Oil price, USD per barrel1 | 108.1 | 97.4 | 54.8 | 56.6 | 61.9 |
| 30.6 | –9.9 | –43.7 | 3.2 | 9.5 | |
| Finland's nominal competitiveness indicator2 | 107.5 | 107.0 | 108.8 | 109.1 | 109.1 |
| 3.8 | –0.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 | |
| US dollar value of one euro1 | 1.18 | 1.12 | 1.09 | 1.08 | 1.08 |
| 4.5 | –5.2 | –2.8 | –0.5 | 0.0 | |
| 1 Technical assumption derived from market expectations. | |||||
| 2 Narrow, supplemented with euro area countries, January–March 1999 = 100. | |||||
| Sources: Bank of Finland and European Central Bank. | |||||
| 13. CURRENT AND DECEMBER 2019 FORECAST | ||||
| 2019 | 2020f | 2021f | 2022f | |
| GDP, % change | 1.0 | –6.9 | 3.0 | 2.9 |
| December 2019 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Inflation (HICP), % | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| December 2019 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Current account, % to GDP | –0.8 | –2.3 | –1.9 | –1.8 |
| December 2019 | –1.3 | –1.3 | –1.1 | –0.9 |
| General government net lending, % to GDP | –1.1 | –8.0 | –4.9 | –3.8 |
| December 2019 | –1.0 | –1.5 | –1.5 | –1.5 |
| General government debt (EDP), % to GDP | 59.4 | 71.3 | 73.3 | 74.5 |
| December 2019 | 58.8 | 59.1 | 60.1 | 60.8 |
| Unemployment rate, % | 6.7 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 8.8 |
| December 2019 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.4 |
| Employment rate, 15–64-year-olds, % | 72.5 | 70.8 | 70.6 | 71.2 |
| December 2019 | 72.5 | 72.7 | 73.0 | 73.4 |
| Source: Bank of Finland. | ||||