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Forecast tables

Forecast tables for 2019–2022 (December 2019)

See forecast tables for the Finnish economy in 2019–2022 (Dec 2019).

December 2019 

1. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, AT REFERENCE YEAR 2010 PRICES
% change on previous year
  2018 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f
GDP at market prices 1.7 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.3
Imports of goods and services 5.0 0.7 1.3 1.8 2.5 
Exports of goods and services 2.2 4.0 0.9 2.2 2.6 
Private consumption 1.8 0.7 1.3 1.2 1.2 
Public consumption 1.5 1.6 1.3 0.5 0.8 
Private fixed investment 2.8 1.1 –0.3 0.8 2.1 
Public fixed investment 5.3 1.5 5.1 –0.2 1.9 
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.   

 

2. CONTRIBUTIONS TO GROWTH1
  2018 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f
GDP, % change 1.7 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.3 
Net exports –1.0 1.3 –0.2 0.2 0.0 
Domestic demand excl. inventory change 2.1 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.3 
of which Consumption 1.4 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.8 
         Investment 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.5 
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy 0.6 –1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 
1 Bank of Finland calculations. Annual growth rates using the previous year's GDP shares at current prices as weights.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.    

 

3. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND. PRICE DEFLATORS     
Index 2010 = 100. and % change on previous year      
  2018 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f
GDP at market prices 115.4 117.6 119.9 121.8 124.2 
  2.1 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.9 
Imports of goods and services 105.4 108.1 108.3 109.6 111.4 
  3.4 2.6 0.2 1.2 1.6 
Exports of goods and services 106.9 106.9 107.0 108.5 110.5 
  4.0 0.0 0.1 1.4 1.9 
Private consumption 112.7 114.1 115.4 116.9 118.8 
  1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.6 
Public consumption 112.8 115.5 118.6 121.2 124.6 
  1.6 2.4 2.7 2.2 2.9 
Private fixed investment 116.4 119.2 120.8 122.6 124.5 
  2.4 2.4 1.3 1.4 1.6 
Public fixed investment 114.8 117.1 121.4 123.8 125.3 
  1.7 2.0 3.6 1.9 1.3 
Terms of trade (goods and services) 101.4 98.9 98.8 99.0 99.2 
  0.5 –2.5 –0.1 0.2 0.2 
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.    

 

4. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, AT CURRENT PRICES
EUR million and % change on previous year          
  2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f
GDP at market prices 234 453 242 161 249 078 255 742  264 195
  3.8 3.3 2.9 2.7  3.3
Imports of goods and services 92 124 95 117 96 582 99 453  103 604
  8.6 3.2 1.5 3.0  4.2
Total supply 326 577 337 279 345 660 355 195  367 799
  5.1 3.3 2.5 2.8  3.5
Exports of goods and services 90 408 94 058 94 930 98 385  102 859
  6.3 4.0 0.9 3.6  4.5
Consumption 176 835 181 353 186 704 191 514  197 436
  3.0 2.6 3.0 2.6  3.1
  Private 123 702 126 077 129 226 132 484  136 227
  3.0 1.9 2.5 2.5  2.8
  Public 53 133 55 276 57 478 59 030  61 209
  3.2 4.0 4.0 2.7  3.7
Fixed investment 55 456 57 402 58 829 60 062  62 225
  5.7 3.5 2.5 2.1  3.6
  Private 45 584 47 178 47 688 48 732  50 539
  5.3 3.5 1.1 2.2  3.7
  Public 9 872 10 224 11 141 11 329  11 686
  7.1 3.6 9.0 1.7  3.1
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy 3 878 4 466 5 197 5 235  5 278
% of previous year's total demand 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.0  0.0
Total demand 326 577 337 279 345 660 355 195  367 799
  5.1 3.3 2.5 2.8  3.5
Total domestic demand 236 169 243 221 250 730 256 810  264 940
  4.7 3.0 3.1 2.4  3.2
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.    

 

5. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND     
% in proportion to GDP at current prices    
  2018 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f
GDP at market prices 100.0 100.0 100.0  100.0 100.0
Imports of goods and services 39.3 39.3 38.8 38.9  39.2
Exports of goods and services 38.6 38.8 38.1 38.5  38.9
Consumption 75.4 74.9 75.0 74.9  74.7
   Private 52.8 52.1 51.9 51.8  51.6
   Public 22.7 22.8 23.1 23.1  23.2
Fixed investment 23.7 23.7 23.6 23.5  23.6
   Private 19.4 19.5 19.1 19.1  19.1
   Public 4.2 4.2 4.5 4.4  4.4
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.0  2.0
Total demand 139.3 139.3 138.8 138.9  139.2
Total domestic demand 100.7 100.4 100.7 100.4  200.3
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.    

 

6. PRICES
Index 2010 = 100, and % change on previous year
  2018 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f
Harmonised index of consumer prices, 2015 = 100 102.4 103.6 104.8 106.3  108.0
  1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.6 
Consumer price index, 2015 = 100 102.2 103.3 104.6 106.0 107.6 
  1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.6 
Private consumption deflator 112.7 114.1 115.4 116.9 118.8 
  1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.6 
Private investment deflator 116.4 119.2 120.8 122.6 124.5 
  2.4 2.4 1.3 1.4 1.6 
Exports of goods and services deflator 106.9 106.9 107.0 108.5 110.5 
  4.0 0.0 0.1 1.4 1.9 
Imports of goods and services deflator 105.4 108.1 108.3 109.6 111.4 
  3.4 2.6 0.2 1.2 1.6 
Value-added deflators          
Value-added, gross at basic prices 115.2 117.5 119.9 121.8 124.1 
  2.1 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.9 
     Private sector 115.6 117.7 119.9 121.8 123.8
  2.1 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.7
     Public sector 114.7 117.9 121.0 123.7 127.2
  2.1 2.8 2.7 2.2 2.9
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.    

 

7. WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY     
% change on previous year    
  2018 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f
Whole economy          
     Index of wage and salary earnings 1.7 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.5 
     Compensation per employee 0.8 1.8 2.5 2.2 2.4 
     Unit labour costs 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 
     Labour productivity per employed person –1.0 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.9 
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.    

 

8. LABOUR MARKET     
1.000 persons and % change on previous year
  2018 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f
Labour force survey (15–74-year-olds)          
Employed persons 2 539 2 564 2 563 2 570 2 581 
  2.7 1.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 
Unemployed persons 202 183 185 182 177 
  –13.7 –9.2 1.0 –1.8 –2.5 
Labour force 2 740 2 747 2 748 2 752 2 758 
  1.2 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 
Working-age population (15–64-year-olds) 3 439 3 427 3 420 3 413 3 409 
  –0.4 –0.3 –0.2 –0.2 –0.1 
Labour force participation rate, % 66.4 66.6 66.7 66.9 67.3 
Unemployment rate, % 7.4 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.4 
Employment rate (15–64-year-olds), % 71.7 72.5 72.7 73.0 73.4 
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.    

 

9. GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE. EXPENDITURE. BALANCE AND DEBT
  2018  2019f  2020f 2021f 2022f
% of GDP            
General government revenue 52.3 51.7 51.7 51.6  51.4
General government expenditure 53.1 52.6 53.1 53.1 52.9 
General government primary expenditure 52.2 51.9 52.5 52.5 52.4 
General government interest expenditure 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 
General government net lending –0.8 –1.0 –1.5 –1.5 –1.5 
Central government net lending –1.2 –0.8 –1.3 –1.2 –1.0 
Local government net lending –0.9 –1.2 –1.1 –1.1 –1.2 
Social security funds 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 
General government primary balance 0.1 –0.2 –0.9 –0.9 –1.0 
General government structural balance1 –0.8 –1.2 –1.5 –1.4 –1.4 
General government debt (consolidated. EDP) 59.0 58.8 59.1 60.1 60.8 
Central government debt 44.8 43.8 43.4 43.8 43.7 
Tax ratio 42.3 42.0 42.1 42.0 41.9 
Current prices, EUR billion          
General government net lending –1.9 –2.3 –3.7 –3.8 –3.9 
Central government net lending –2.8 –1.9 –3.3 –3.1 –2.8 
Local government net lending –2.1 –3.0 –2.7 –2.9 –3.2 
Social security funds 2.9 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.0 
General government debt (consolidated. EDP) 138.4 142.5 147.3 153.8 160.5 
1Calculated by the Bank of Finland under the ESCB methodology for estimating the output gap.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.    

 

10. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS     
EUR billion     
  2018 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f
Exports of goods and services (SNA) 90.4 94.1 94.9 98.4 102.9 
Imports of goods and services (SNA) 92.1 95.1 96.6 99.5 103.6 
Goods and services account (SNA) –1.7 –1.1 –1.7 –1.1 –0.7 
     % to GDP –0.7 –0.4 –0.7 –0.4 –0.3 
Investment income and other items, net (+ statistical discrepancy) 0.9 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 
Current transfers, net –2.4 –2.5 –2.6 –2.7 –2.8 
Current account, net –3.2 –31.3 –3.2 –2.7 –2.5 
Net lending, % to GDP              
     Private sector –0.5 –0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 
     Public sector –0.8 –1.0 –1.5 –1.5 –1.5 
Current account, % to GDP –1.4 –1.3 –1.3 –1.1 –0.9 
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.    

 

11. INTEREST RATES     
%     
  2018 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f
3-month Euribor1 –0.3 –0.4 –0.4 –0.4 –0.3 
Average interest rate on new loan drawdowns2 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 
Average interest rate on the stock of loans2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 
Average interest rate on the stock of deposits3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Yield on Finnish 10-year government bonds1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 
1 Tehnical assumption derived from market expectations.          
2 Finnish credit institutions' loans to households and non-financial corporations (excl. overdrafts. credit card credits and repurchase agreements).    
3 Finnish credit institutions' deposits from households and non-financial corporations.          
Source: Bank of Finland.     

 

12. INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
The Eurosystem staff projections    
  2018 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f
GDP, % change on previous year          
World 3.6 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.1
USA 2.9 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.7
Euro area 1.9 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.4
Japan 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.6 0.5
Imports, % change on previous year              
World 4.2 0.6 1.4 2.6 2.9
USA 4.4 1.6 0.8 1.6 1.8
Euro area 2.7 3.1 2.5 2.8 2.8
Japan 3.3 –0.5 0.9 1.8 1.3
Index, 2010 = 100, and % change on previous year              
Import volume in Finnish export markets 112.9 114.6 116.6 119.5 122.7 
  3.6 1.6 1.7 2.5 2.7 
Export prices of Finland's competitors (excl. oil), in national currencies 106.3 108.2 110.1 112.6 115.1 
  5.2 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.2 
Export prices of Finland's industrial competitors (excl. oil), in euro 99.6 101.7 104.0 106.3 108.7 
  1.4 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 
Industrial raw materials (excl. energy), HWWA index, in US dollars 124.8 125.0 126.7 129.8 132.7 
  5.6 0.2 1.4 2.4 2.3 
Oil price, USD per barrel1 108.1 97.1 90.6 87.4 86.4 
  30.6 –10.2 –6.6 –3.6 –1.1 
Finland's nominal competitiveness indicator2 107.5 107.1 106.6 106.6 106.6 
  3.8 –0.4 –0.4 0.0 0.0 
US dollar value of one euro1 1.18 1.12 1.10 1.10 1.10 
  4.5 –5.2 –1.3 0.0 0.0 
1 Technical assumption derived from market expectations.           
2 Narrow, supplemented with euro area countries, January–March 1999 = 100.           
Sources: Bank of Finland and European Central Bank.     

 

13. CURRENT AND JUNE 2019 FORECAST
  2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f
GDP, % change 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.3 
June 2019 1.6 1.5 1.3  
Inflation (HICP), % 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.6 
June 2019 1.3 1.4 1.6  
Current account, % to GDP –1.3 –1.3 –1.1 –0.9 
June 2019 –0.7 –0.7 –0.6  
General government net lending, % to GDP –1.0 –1.5 –1.5 –1.5 
June 2019 –0.5 –0.2 –0.3  
General government debt (EDP), % to GDP 58.8 59.1 60.1 60.8 
June 2019 58.5 57.9 57.2  
Unemployment rate, % 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.4 
June 2019 6.5 6.4 6.3  
Employment rate, 15–64-year-olds, % 72.5 72.7 73.0 73.4
June 2019 72.5 72.9 73.3  
Source: Bank of Finland.    

 

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