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Forecast tables

Forecast for 2018–2021

See forecast tables for the Finnish economy in 2018–2021 (December 2018).

December 2018

1.BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND. AT REFERENCE YEAR 2010 PRICES
% change on previous year          
  2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
GDP at market prices 2.8 2.7 1.9 1.7 1.4
Imports of goods and services 3.5 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5
Exports of goods and services                                   7.5 3.3 3.5 3.1 2.8
Private consumption 1.3 1.9 2.3 1.6 1.2
Public consumption –0.5 2.6 –0.1 0.9 0.7
Private fixed investment 4.6 3.7 2.3 2.3 2.1
Public fixed investment 1.8 1.6 –2.6 0.3 1.2
Source: Bank of Finland.

 

2. CONTRIBUTIONS TO GROWTH1
  2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
GDP, % change 2.8 2.7 1.9 1.7 1.4
Net exports 1.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1
Domestic demand excl. inventory change 1.5 2.4 1.5 1.5 1.3
of which Consumption 0.6 1.6 1.2 1.1 0.8
      Investment 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.4
Inventory change + statistical  discrepancy –0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
1 Bank of Finland calculations. Annual growth rates using the previous year's GDP shares at current prices as weights.
  Source: Bank of Finland.

 

3. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND. PRICE DEFLATORS
Index 2010 = 100, and % change on previous year
  2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
GDP at market prices 113.7 115.2 116.7 118.8 120.9
  0.8 1.3 1.3 1.8 1.7
Imports of goods and services 101.3 104.8 107.2 109.3 111.3
  3.5 3.5 2.3 2.0 1.8
Exports of goods and services                                   104.1 107.5 110.0 112.0 113.7
  3.1 3.3 2.3 1.8 1.5
Private consumption 112.5 113.8 115.3 117.1 119.2
  1.1 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.7
Public consumption 111.9 112.2 114.2 116.6 119.1
  –0.1 0.3 1.8 2.1 2.2
Private fixed investment 112.8 115.1 117.9 120.6 123.0
  1.8 2.0 2.5 2.3 1.9
Public fixed investment 112.4 115.2 118.3 120.8 123.0
  1.4 2.5 2.6 2.2 1.8
Terms of trade (goods and services) 102.8 102.6 102.6 102.5 102.1
  –0.3 –0.1 0.0 –0.2 –0.3
Source: Bank of Finland.

 

4. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, AT CURRENT PRICES
     EUR million and % change on previous year
  2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
GDP at market prices 223 843 232 871 240 403 248 952 256 776
  3.6 4.0 3.2 3.6 3.1
Imports of goods and services 85 446 90 781 95 322 99 764 104 150
  7.1 6.2 5.0 4.7 4.4
Total supply 309 289 323 652 335 725 348 716 360 926
  4.5 4.6 3.7 3.9 3.5
Exports of goods and services                                   86 250 92 055 97 422 102 219 106 642
  10.8 6.7 5.8 4.9 4.3
Consumption 173 107 178 346 183 868 189 745 195 335
  1.5 3.0 3.1 3.2 2.9
   Private 121 874 125 641 130 288 134 517 138 526
  2.4 3.1 3.7 3.2 3.0
   Public                                                       51 233 52 704 53 580 55 228 56 810
  –0.6 2.9 1.7 3.1 2.9
Fixed investment                                                    49 578 52 286 54 335 56 672 58 868
  5.8 5.5 3.9 4.3 3.9
   Private 40 437 42 769 44 824 46 925 48 819
  6.4 5.8 4.8 4.7 4.0
   Public                                                       9 141 9 517 9 510 9 747 10 049
  3.3 4.1 –0.1 2.5 3.1
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy 354 965 100 80 80
% of previous year's total demand –0.1 0.2 –0.3 0.0 0.0
Total demand 309 289 323 652 335 725 348 716 360 926
  4.5 4.6 3.7 3.9 3.5
Total domestic demand 223 039 231 597 238 303 246 497 254 283
  2.3 3.8 2.9 3.4 3.2
Source: Bank of Finland.

 

5. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND
% of GDP at current prices
  2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021
GDP at market prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Imports of goods and services 38.2 39.0 39.7 40.1 40.6
Exports of goods and services                                   38.5 39.5 40.5 41.1 41.5
Consumption 77.3 76.6 76.5 76.2 76.1
Private 54.4 54.0 54.2 54.0 53.9
Public 22.9 22.6 22.3 22.2 22.1
Fixed investment 22.1 22.5 22.6 22.8 22.9
Private 18.1 18.4 18.6 18.8 19.0
Public 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy. 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total demand 138.2 139.0 139.7 140.1 140.6
Total domestic demand 99.6 99.5 99.1 99.0 99.0
Source: Bank of Finland.

 

6. PRICES
     Index 2005 = 100, and % change on previous year
  2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
Harmonised index of consumer prices, 2005=100 101.2 102.4 103.8 105.4 107.2
  0.8 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.7
Consumer price index, 2005=100 120.6 122.0 123.7 125.5 127.7
  0.8 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7
Private consumption deflator                                          112.5 113.8 115.3 117.1 119.2
  1.1 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.7
Private investment deflator 112.8 115.1 117.9 120.6 123.0
  1.8 2.0 2.5 2.3 1.9
Exports of goods and services deflator 104.1 107.5 110.0 112.0 113.7
  3.1 3.3 2.3 1.8 1.5
Imports of goods and services deflator 101.3 104.8 107.2 109.3 111.3
  3.5 3.5 2.3 2.0 1.8
Value-added deflators                                                       
Value-added. gross at basic prices                                        113.8 115.6 117.4 119.3 121.7
  0.9 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.0
Private sector 113.9 116.0 117.8 119.6 121.9
  1.3 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.9
Public sector 112.9 113.5 115.5 118.0 120.5
  –1.0 0.5 1.8 2.1 2.2
Source: Bank of Finland.

 

7. WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
    % change on previous year
  2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
Whole economy          
   Index of wage and salary earnings 0.2 1.8 2.4 2.7 2.4
   Compensation per employee –1.2 1.3 1.8 3.0 2.5
   Unit labour costs –2.8 1.0 0.6 1.6 1.4
   Labour productivity per employed person 1.7 0.3 1.2 1.3 1.1
Source: Bank of Finland.

 

8. LABOUR MARKET
     1,000 persons and % change on previous year
  2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
Labour force survey (15–74-year-olds)          
Employed persons 2 474 2 534 2 552 2 561 2 569
  1.1 2.4 0.7 0.4 0.3
Unemployed persons 234 207 199 194 194
  –0.9 –11.3 –4.1 –2.3 –0.4
Labour force 2 708 2 741 2 751 2 756 2 763
  0.9 1.2 0.3 0.2 0.3
Working-age population (15–64-year-olds) 3 451 3 438 3 426 3 419 3 413
  –0.3 –0.4 –0.3 –0.2 –0.2
Labour force participation rate, %                                                      65.8 66.5 66.7 66.9 67.2
Unemployment rate, % 8.6 7.6 7.2 7.1 7.0
Employment rate (15–64-year-olds), % 69.6 71.6 72.3 72.6 72.9
Source: Bank of Finland.

 

9. GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE, EXPENDITURE, BALANCE AND DEBT
% OF GDP
  2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
General government revenue 53.3 52.2 51.7 51.7 51.5
General government expenditure 54.0 53.1 52.3 52.0 51.9
General government primary expenditure 53.0 52.2 51.5 51.2 51.1
General government interest expenditure 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8
General government net lending –0.7 –0.9 –0.7 –0.3 –0.3
Central government –1.8 –1.9 –0.9 –0.5 –0.5
Local government –0.1 –0.4 –0.5 –0.5 –0.4
Social security funds 1.2 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.6
General government primary balance 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4
General government structural balance –0.3 –1.0 –1.0 –0.6 –0.5
General government debt (EDP) 61.3 59.4 59.0 57.9 57.1
Central government debt 47.3 45.9 45.4 44.3 43.5
Tax ratio 43.3 42.4 42.0 42.1 42.0
Current prices. EUR billion          
General government net lending –1.5 –2.1 –1.6 –0.8 –0.9
Central government –4.0 –4.3 –2.2 –1.2 –1.4
Local government –0.3 –0.9 –1.2 –1.3 –1.0
Social security funds 2.8 3.2 1.9 1.7 1.5
General government debt (EDP) 137.3 138.4 141.7 144.2 146.5
Source: Bank of Finland.

 

10. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS          
EUR billion          
  2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
Exports of goods and services (SNA) 86.3 92.1 97.4 102.2 106.6
Imports of goods and services (SNA) 85.4 90.8 95.3 99.8 104.1
Goods and services account (SNA) 0.8 1.3 2.1 2.5 2.5
% of GDP 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.0
Investment income and other items. net (+ statistical discrepancy) –0.3 –0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6
Current transfers. net –2.1 –2.6 –2.6 –2.7 –2.8
Current account. net –1.5 –20.4 0.1 0.3 0.3
Net lending, % of GDP          
Private sector 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.5 0.5
Public sector –0.7 –0.9 –0.7 –0.3 –0.3
Current account, % of GDP –0.7 –0.9 0.0 0.1 0.1
Source: Bank of Finland.

 

11. INTEREST RATES          
%          
  2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
3-month Euribor1 –0.3 –0.3 –0.3 0.0 0.3
Average interest rate on new loan drawdowns2 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3
Average interest rate on the stock of loans2 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.9
Average interest rate on the stock of deposits3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5
Yield on Finnish 10-year government bonds1 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2
1 Technical assumption derived from market expectations.
2 Finnish credit institutions’ loans to households and non-financial corporations (excl. overdrafts, credit card credits and repurchase agreements).
3 Finnish credit institutions’ deposits from households and non-financial corporations.
Source: Bank of Finland.

 

12. INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
The Eurosystem staff projections
  2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
GDP, % change on previous year          
World 3.6 3.6 3.3 3.4 3.3
USA 2.2 2.9 2.5 2.0 1.8
Euro area 2.5 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.5
Japan 1.7 0.9 1.0 0.1 0.7
Imports, % change on previous year          
World  5.2 4.7 3.7 3.7 3.9
USA 4.6 4.7 4.1 3.2 2.9
Euro area 4.1 2.7 4.2 4.2 3.6 
Japan 3.5 2.7 2.3 1.8 2.3
Index, 2010 = 100. and % change on previous year          
Import volume in Finnish export markets 128.8 133.6 138.2 143.3 148.2
  5.8 3.8 3.4 3.7 3.5
Export prices (excl. oil) of Finland's trading partners, national currencies 109.2 114.3 118.6 121.4 124.1
  3.3 4.7 3.8 2.3 2.2
Export prices (excl. oil) of Finland's trading partners, in euro 104.4 105.4 109.3 111.8 114.3
  3.0 0.9 3.7 2.3 2.2
Industrial raw materials (excl. energy). HWWA index, in US dollars 118.2 124.4 117.7 122.2 127.4
  21.5 5.2 –5.4 3.8 4.3
Oil price, USD per barrel1 54.4 71.8 67.5 66.8 65.9
  23.5 32.0 –6.0 –1.1 –1.3
Broad nominal effective exchange rate for Finland1 95.6 92.2 92.1 92.1 92.1
  –0.3 –3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
US dollar value of one euro 1.13 1.18 1.13 1.13 1.13
  2.1 4.5 –3.8 0.0 0.0
2 The exchange rate strengthens when the index decreases; 2010 = 100.
Source: Bank of Finland.

 

13. CURRENT AND JUNE 2018 FORECAST        
  2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
GDP, % change 2.7 1.9 1.7 1.4
June 2018 2.9 2.2 1.7  
Inflation (HICP), % 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.7
June 2018 0.9 1.0 1.5  
Current account, % of GDP –0.9 0.0 0.1 0.1
June 2018 0.9 0.7 0.9  
General government net lending, % of GDP –0.9 –0.7 –0.3 –0.3
June 2018 –0.8 –0.7 –0.4  
General government debt (EDP), % of GDP 59.4 59.0 57.9 57.1
June 2018 60.2 59.5 58.3  
Unemployment rate, % 7.6 7.2 7.1 7.0
June 2018 8.0 7.7 7.5  
Source: Bank of Finland.

 

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