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Forecast tables

Forecast for 2015–2017

June 2015

1. Balance of supply and demand, at reference year 2010 prices
% change on previous year      
  2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f
GDP at market prices -1.3 -0.1 0.2 1.2 1.3
Imports of goods and services -1.6 -1.4 -0.4 2.5 3.4
Exports of goods and services                                   -0.7 -0.4 0.6 3.3 4.0
Private consumption -0.6 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7
Public consumption 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.0 1.1
Private fixed investment -7.3 -6.5 -2.5 2.7 2.2
Public fixed investment 4.0 0.6 2.6 1.0 1.2

Source: Bank of Finland forecast June 2015.
2. Contributions to growth1      
  2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f
GDP, % change -1.3 -0.1 0.2 1.2 1.3
Net exports 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2
Domestic demand excl. inventory change -1.3 -1.1 -0.1 0.9 1.0
of which Consumption -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6
      Investment -1.2 -1.1 -0.3 0.5 0.4
Inventory change + statistical  discrepancy -0.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
1 Bank of Finland calculations. Annual growth rates using the previous year's GDP shares
  at current prices as weights.          

Source: Bank of Finland forecast June 2015.

 

3. .Balance of supply and demand, price deflators  
Index, 2010 = 100 and % change on previous year  
  2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f
GDP at market prices 108.2 109.4 110.1 111.4 112.9
  2.5 1.1 0.6 1.2 1.4
Imports of goods and services 107.0 105.1 106.4 108.8 111.6
  -1.3 -1.8 1.3 2.3 2.6
Exports of goods and services                                   104.7 102.9 103.8 106.2 108.8
  -0.8 -1.7 0.9 2.3 2.5
Private consumption 108.8 110.4 111.1 112.4 113.9
  2.5 1.5 0.6 1.2 1.4
Public consumption 111.1 112.7 113.8 115.2 116.8
  2.4 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.4
Private fixed investment 108.0 108.8 110.0 111.4 113.0
  1.3 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.5
Public fixed investment 108.9 109.5 110.2 111.8 113.5
  1.7 0.5 0.7 1.4 1.5
Terms of trade (goods and services) 97.9 97.9 97.5 97.6 97.5
  0.5 0.0 -0.4 0.1 -0.1

Source: Bank of Finland forecast June 2015.

 

4. Balance of supply and demand, at current prices  
EUR  million and % change on previous year    
  2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f
GDP at market prices 201,995 204,015 205,719 210,753 216,314
  1.1 1.0 0.8 2.4 2.6
Imports of goods and services 79,386 76,888 77,568 81,357 86,292
  -2.9 -3.1 0.9 4.9 6.1
Total supply 281,381 280,903 283,288 292,110 302,606
  -0.1 -0.2 0.8 3.1 3.6
Exports of goods and services                                   77,646 76,042 77,137 81,531 86,862
  -1.6 -2.1 1.4 5.7 6.5
Consumption 161,330 163,650 165,072 168,024 171,691
  2.2 1.4 0.9 1.8 2.2
   Private 111,153 112,687 113,591 115,376 117,713
  1.9 1.4 0.8 1.6 2.0
   Public                                                       50,177 50,963 51,481 52,647 53,978
  3.1 1.6 1.0 2.3 2.5
Fixed investment                                                    42,712 40,810 40,629 42,094 43,593
  -4.0 -4.5 -0.4 3.6 3.6
   Private 34,306 32,312 31,855 33,103 34,352
  -6.1 -5.8 -1.4 3.9 3.8
   Public                                                       8,406 8,498 8,774 8,992 9,241
  5.7 1.1 3.2 2.5 2.8
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy -307 401 450 460 460
% of previous year's total demand -0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total demand 281,381 280,903 283,288 292,110 302,606
  -0.1 -0.2 0.8 3.1 3.6
Total domestic demand 203,735 204,861 206,151 210,578 215,744
  0.5 0.6 0.6 2.1 2.5

Source: Bank of Finland forecast June 2015.

 

5. Balance of supply and demand      
% of GDP at current prices      
  2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f
GDP at market prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Imports of goods and services 39.3 37.7 37.7 38.6 39.9
Exports of goods and services                                   38.4 37.3 37.5 38.7 40.2
Consumption 79.9 80.2 80.2 79.7 79.4
Private 55.0 55.2 55.2 54.7 54.4
Public 24.8 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0
Fixed investment 21.1 20.0 19.7 20.0 20.2
Private 17.0 15.8 15.5 15.7 15.9
Public 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy, -0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Total demand 139.3 137.7 137.7 138.6 139.9
Total domestic demand 100.9 100.4 100.2 99.9 99.7

Source: Bank of Finland forecast June 2015.

 

6. Prices      
Index, 2010 = 100, and % change on previous year      
  2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f
         
Harmonised index of consumer prices, 2005=100 120.4 121.8 122.0 123.2 125.0
  2.2 1.2 0.2 1.0 1.5
Consumer price index, 2005=100 118.3 119.6 119.7 121.0 122.7
  1.5 1.0 0.1 1.1 1.4
Private consumption deflator                                          108.8 110.4 111.1 112.4 113.9
  2.5 1.5 0.6 1.2 1.4
Private investment deflator 108.0 108.8 110.0 111.4 113.0
  1.3 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.5
Exports of goods and services deflator 104.7 102.9 103.8 106.2 108.8
  -0.8 -1.7 0.9 2.3 2.5
Imports of goods and services deflator 107.0 105.1 106.4 108.8 111.6
  -1.3 -1.8 1.3 2.3 2.6
Value-added deflators                                             
Value-added, gross at basic prices                                        107.8 109.0 109.9 110.9 112.3
  2.3 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.2
Private sector 106.7 107.9 108.7 109.7 110.9
  2.3 1.1 0.8 0.9 1.1
Public sector 112.5 113.5 114.7 116.0 117.9
  2.5 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.6

Source: Bank of Finland forecast June 2015.

 

 

7. Wages and productivity      
% change on previous year      
  2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f
Whole economy
   Index of wage and salary earnings 2.1 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.5
   Compensation per employee 2.1 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.6
   Unit labour costs 2.3 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.8
   Labour productivity per employed person -0.2 0.3 0.4 1.0 0.7

Source: Bank of Finland forecast June 2015.

 

8. Labour market      
1,000 persons and % change on previous year      
  2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f
Labour force survey (15–74-year-olds)        
Employed persons 2,457 2,447 2,444 2,449 2,462
  -1.1 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.5
Unemployed persons 219 232 246 238 230
  6.1 5.8 5.9 -3.0 -3.3
Labour force 2,676 2,679 2,690 2,687 2,692
  -0.5 0.1 0.4 -0.1 0.2
Working-age population (15–64-year-olds) 3,508 3,491 3,478 3,468 3,456
  -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4
Labour force participation rate, %                                                      65.5 65.4 65.5 65.4 65.3
Unemployment rate, % 8.2 8.7 9.1 8.9 8.6
Employment rate (15–64-year-olds), % 68.5 68.3 68.2 68.6 69.2

Source: Bank of Finland forecast June 2015.

 

9. General government revenue, expenditure, balance and debt    
% of GDP      
  2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f
General government revenue 55.2 55.5 55.9 55.7 55.7
General government expenditure 57.8 58.7 59.0 58.7 58.6
General government primary expenditure 56.5 57.4 57.8 57.6 57.5
General government interest expenditure 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1
General government net lending -2.5 -3.2 -3.1 -3.1 -3.0
Central government -3.7 -3.7 -3.2 -3.4 -3.3
Local government -0.7 -0.9 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8
Social security funds 1.9 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.1
General government primary balance -1.3 -1.9 -1.9 -1.9 -1.8
General government debt (EDP) 55.8 59.3 62.5 65.1 67.3
Central government debt 44.4 46.6 49.3 51.6 53.5
Tax ratio 44.0 44.4 44.7 44.4 44.4

Source: Bank of Finland forecast June 2015.

      

 

10. Balance of payments      
EUR million      
  2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f
Exports of goods and services (SNA) 77,646 76,042 77,137 81,531 86,862
Imports of goods and services (SNA) 79,386 76,888 77,568 81,357 86,292
Goods and services account (SNA) -1,740 -846 -432 174 570
% of GDP -0.9 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3
Investment income and other items, net (+ statistical discrepancy) 794 -280 -727 -407 -204
Current transfers, net -2518 -2566 -2397 -2440 -2489
Current account, net -2,850 -2,320 -2,234 -1,679 -1,333
Net lending, % of GDP
Private sector 1.1 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.4
Public sector -2.5 -3.2 -3.1 -3.1 -3.0
Current account, % of GDP -1.4 -1.1 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6

Source: Bank of Finland forecast June 2015.

 

11. Interest rates      
%      
  2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f
3-month Euribor1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2
Average interest rate on new loans2 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.9
Average interest rate on the stock of loans2 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.8
Average interest rate on the stock of deposits3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4
Yield on Finnish 10-year government bonds1 1.9 1.4 0.7 1.1 1.3
1 Technical assumption derived from market expectations.
2 Finnish credit institutions’ loans to households and non-financial corporations (excl. overdrafts, credit card credits
and repurchase agreements).
3 Finnish credit institutions’ deposits from households and non-financial corporations.

Source: Bank of Finland forecast June 2015.

 

 

12. International environment      
Eurosystem staff projections       
  2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f
GDP, % change on previous year      
World 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.8 3.8
USA 2.2 2.4 2.6 3.1 2.7
Euro area -0.3 0.9 1.5 1.9 2.0
Japan 1.6 -0.1 0.5 1.5 0.7
Imports, % change on previous year      
World  3.5 2.9 2.6 5.0 5.3
USA 1.1 4.0 5.2 6.0 5.7
Euro area 1.4 4.1 4.8 5.8 5.9
Japan 3.0 7.2 2.1 2.9 1.2
Index, 2010 = 100, and % change on previous year          
Import volume in Finnish export markets 112.6 115.5 117.6 122.8 129.0
  2.3 2.6 1.8 4.4 5.1
Export prices (excl. oil) of Finland's trading partners, national currencies 102.2 103.0 104.8 107.3 110.0
  -1.0 0.7 1.7 2.4 2.5
Export prices (excl. oil) of Finland's trading partners, in euro 104.8 104.7 111.2 114.2 117.1
  -2.9 -0.1 6.2 2.8 2.5
Industrial raw materials (excl. energy), HWWA index, in US dollars 93.6 89.0 73.4 74.5 78.2
  -2.7 -4.9 -17.6 1.5 5.0
Oil price, USD per barrel1 108.8 98.9 58.0 64.7 68.3
  -2.8 -9.1 -41.4 11.5 5.5
Finland's nominal competitiveness indicator1,2 101.6 102.4 98.1 97.8 97.8
  1.7 0.8 -4.2 -0.3 0.0
US dollar value of one euro1 1.33 1.33 1.09 1.08 1.08
  3.4 0.0 -17.7 -1.0 0.0
 
1 Technical assumption derived from market expectations.
2 Narrow plus euro area, 1999Q1 = 100          

Source: Bank of Finland forecast June 2015.

 

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